c/Collapse

“Given the evidence, I feel like it would be irresponsible not to be linking it to global warming, with a warmer atmosphere and a warmer ocean.”

All the scientists Guardian Australia spoke to said there was a desperate need for more research and funding to help them to provide answers.

“I’m genuinely worried,” says Hobbs. “As a scientist I’m worried that I can’t find the answers, or that we might have missed something. And it feels like the stakes are very high in getting this wrong.

“If – and it’s a big if – this is a functional collapse of the system, that means we need to reappraise our sea level projections, and that affects a lot of people. These are the stakes we are playing for. As scientists we have a real responsibility not to mess this up.”

The earth’s climate is the prototypical complex system. Coupled with scientist’s desire for definitive, compelling and complete evidence, predictions for climate change tend err on the side of understating impacts; much of our understanding is based on historical data, but this low level of sea ice is unprecedented. It’s guaranteed that climate change will result in many “surprises,” since there is likely no comparable event to look to in earth’s history. What has been confidently predicted, in the IPCC report for example, is enough we should stop the experimentation in geo engineering immediately. Ultimately we should be more worried about “what we can’t find the answers for, and what we might have missed” than what our models predict.

Torrential rain and thunderstorms lashed the Canadian province of Nova Scotia last week in what was deemed its worst rainfall event in 50 years. Flash-flooding resulted, leading Novia Scotia to declare a two-week state of emergency last Saturday. At least three people died in the floods, up to 600 had to evacuate their homes, and power cuts affected a further 80,000.

SS: These next few years will likely be the hottest the human species has ever endured: the culmination of natural events like El Niño, solar activity, and recent volcanic eruptions coupled with our relentless increase in green house gas emissions will likely result in records being shattered. The author of this article calls this combination of factors “unlucky.” With recent natural disasters around the world mounting, we can agree this is an unfortunate alignment of natural factors on top od the already dire human caused climate disaster.