World Politics

This brief examines the implications of the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian and Israeli–Lebanese conflicts for the Kingdom of Jordan. While once seen as a central actor in the Israel–Palestine conflict, Jordan has not received significant consideration by the U.S. foreign policy establishment since the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. This oversight could prove perilous, as a destabilized Jordan would have broad effects across the region. This brief draws on firsthand author interviews with top-level Jordanian officials, Islamist leaders, journalists, and other experts to examine the kingdom’s outlook.

Since Jordan reached a peace deal with Israel in 1994, the kingdom has emerged as a strong American partner in the Middle East, exemplified by the two countries signing a fourth Memorandum of Understanding in 2022, in which the U.S. agreed to provide Jordan with $1.45 billion of assistance annually. Despite the assistance, the U.S.–Jordanian relationship has become increasingly uncertain as the United States provides unconditional support for Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Opposition to Israel’s wars has united the Jordanian public, which is distancing itself from the U.S. and Israel by widespread participation in the boycotts of American and European products and growing support for the main Islamist political party.

The prospect of Israel annexing the West Bank, an idea increasingly bandied about within Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Cabinet, would be especially threatening to Jordan. Many Jordanians now question if Israel aims not merely to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, but to revive the idea that Jordan is Palestine — a notion that is categorically rejected by the Jordanian government.

A large-scale exodus of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan would lead to a profound crisis. With the kingdom already hosting over a million refugees — more of whom may arrive following Assad’s downfall and subsequent unrest — beset with economic problems, and incapable of providing water to its existing population, King Abdullah II’s continued rule could be jeopardized.

While the Trump administration’s position on Israel’s potential seizure of the West Bank remains to be seen, it is clear that a destabilized Jordan would be at odds with U.S. interests. Ultimately, to fulfill his campaign pledge to end the forever wars in the Middle East, Trump may have to choose between reining in Israeli actions, or risk greater conflict in Jordan and beyond.

I, Lee Mordechai, a historian by profession and an Israeli citizen, bear witness in this document to the situation in Gaza as events are unfolding. The enormous amount of evidence I have seen, much of it referenced later in this document, has been enough for me to believe that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian population in Gaza. I explain why I chose to use the term below. Israel’s campaign is ostensibly its reaction to the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7, 2023, in which war crimes and crimes against humanity were committed within the context of the longstanding conflict between Israelis and Palestinians that can be dated back to 1917 or 1948 (or other dates). In all cases, historical grievances and atrocities do not justify additional atrocities in the present. Therefore, I consider Israel’s response to Hamas’ actions on Oct. 7 utterly disproportionate and criminal.

The paragraphs of this executive summary contain the summary of much longer sections below, a paragraph for each section. Each section below includes dozens to hundreds of references that lead to the supporting evidence upon which I base my assessment. This version of the document greatly expands upon the previous version from June 18, 2024 by adding much content and evidence to existing sections, adding new sections (an appendix on methodology and a focus on the Oct.-Nov. 2024 campaign in northern Gaza) as well as responding to the discussion it initiated. Due to the sheer amount of material and the expansion of the war, I move in this version from updating the entire document at once to a model that updates sections separately, starting from the beginning of the document.

Over the past year, Israel has repeatedly massacred Palestinians in Gaza, killing over 44,000 Palestinians – at least 60% of whom are women, children and elderly – as of writing. At least one hundred thousand others have been injured and more than 10,000 are still missing. There is ample evidence for Israel’s indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks throughout the war, as well as many examples for massacres and other killings. Many international institutions have harshly criticized Israel’s conduct of the war.

Israel has actively attempted to cause the death of the civilian population of Gaza. Israel has created famine in Gaza as a de facto policy and used it as a weapon of war, resulting in the confirmed deaths of dozens of civilians (mainly children) from starvation. Israel created shortages of water, medicine and electricity. Israel has also dismantled Gaza’s health system and Gaza’s civilian infrastructure. As a result, more people die from treatable conditions and difficult medical procedures such as amputations and caesareans are conducted without anesthesia. The overall mortality in Gaza is unknown, but is almost certainly much higher than the official death toll.

Israeli discourse has de-humanized Palestinians to such an extent that the vast majority of Israeli Jews supports the aforementioned measures. The de-humanization was led by Israel’s highest state officials, and it continues to be supported through the state infrastructure and military. De-humanization is also widely prevalent in broader civil society. Speaking about Palestinians in genocidal language is legitimate in Israeli discourse. The de-humanization results in widespread abuse of, and violence towards, detained Palestinians and Gazan civilians and their property, all with almost no consequences. The vast majority of de-humanizing content is shared by Israelis themselves, and is confirmed by Palestinian testimonials of their experiences.

The evidence I have seen and discuss indicates that one of Israel’s very likely objectives is to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip, whether in part or in total, by removing as many Palestinians as feasibly possible. Key members in Israel’s government have made statements confirming this intent, and several of Israel’s government ministries have planned or worked to facilitate such an end, sometimes by persuading or pressuring other states. Israel has already cleared significant parts of the Gaza strip by demolition and bulldozing, also attempting to destroy the fabric of Palestinian society by deliberately targeting civilian institutions such as universities, libraries, archives, religious buildings, historical sites, farms, schools, cemeteries, museums and markets. So far more than 60% of the buildings in the Gaza Strip have been destroyed or damaged.

One of the purposes of the war, according to the Israeli government, is to release the hostages – some 101 of whom remain in Hamas’ captivity. The evidence demonstrates that compared to the ethnic cleansing this is a low priority for Israel’s government. To date Israel has released seven hostages through military operations, while killing many other hostages directly or indirectly through its actions. Moreover, there is much evidence that Israel has stalled the negotiations for releasing hostages or attempted to obstruct them on many occasions. Members of Israel’s government have also attacked the families of the hostages, and their associates have attempted to prevent them from speaking up politically.

The global attention to Gaza, and at times to Lebanon, Iran and Syria, has drawn attention away from the West Bank. There, Israel’s operations through its military or settlers since the beginning of the war have resulted in the killing of over 700 Palestinians, the ethnic cleansing of at least 20 local communities, as well as a sharp increase in levels of violence, abuse and humiliation of Palestinians by both the Israeli state and Jewish settlers.

All of the above has been made possible through the strong support of most mainstream media in Israel as well as the West, primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. From the beginning of the war, Israel has waged an information campaign that emphasized the horrors of the Oct. 7 attacks with both reliable and unreliable factual claims, limited information flows from Gaza, discredited critical voices outside Israel, and curtailed domestic discourse to rally the Israeli public around the war. As a result, Israeli media and discourse remain predominantly and uncritically pro-war, with many institutions and individuals self-censoring. Mainstream media outlets in the US share much of this approach. In depth investigations of the Israeli smear campaign against UNRWA and the persistent doubts towards the Palestinian death counts reveal that both are cases of unfounded propaganda. All of the above normalizes Israeli violence and actions by portraying them as legitimate, deflects attention away from the reality in Gaza, and contributes to the de-humanization of Palestinians.

America’s almost complete support has been fundamental for Israel’s conduct of the war. This support took the form of military aid, the deployment of US military and other assets, ironclad diplomatic support, especially at the United Nations, and the release of Israel from mechanisms of US oversight and serious accountability. Despite rhetoric that was sometimes critical, de facto the US gave Israel unprecedented support. Dissenters in the US – both government employees and sizable groups in American society – had little to no influence on US policy.

I examine more specific events in three zoom-in sections as case studies of many of the themes described above:

• The second raid on the al-Shifa hospital in late March 2024
• The student protests across the US in April and May 2024
• The military operation in the northern Gaza Strip in October and November 2024 (ongoing)

The evidence I have seen and describe below has been sufficient for me to believe that what Israel is currently doing to the Palestinian population in Gaza is consistent with the definition of genocide as I understand it. In the document’s two appendices, I explain my reasoning for using this term and discuss my methodology.

China’s consistent message to the U.S. since Donald Trump’s election is the need for deeper cooperation. But Trump and his hawkish advisers and Congressmembers seem bent on a trade war and closer ties to Taiwan. His strategy is that once the Middle East and Ukraine are “solved,” he will be positioned to force Xi Jinping’s hand. But the Chinese have options for dealing with U.S. economic pressure. Still, Trump might bargain on U.S. security ties if he can get a deal on trade. The most likely outcome is more tension in U.S.-China relations and a further drift toward Cold War-era competition.