this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2025
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The difference here is that you're never going to reach New Zealand that way but incremental improvements in AI will eventually get you to AGI*
*Unless intelligence is substrate dependent and cannot be replicated in silica or that we destroy ourselves before we get there
It is a common misconception that incremental improvements must equate to eventually achieving the goal, but it is perfectly possible that progress could be asymptotic and we never reach AGI even with constant “advancements”
Incremental improvements by definition mean that you're moving towards something. It might take a long time but my comment made no claims about the timescale. There's only two plausible scenarios that I can think of in which we don't reach AGI and they're mentioned in my comment.
That relies on the increments being the same. It's much easier to accelerate from 0 to 60 mph than it is from 670,999,940 mph to C.