If Putin dies, a successor might (secretly) align with Ukraine. Something like "If you attack XX, I will remove my troops from ZZ, if you don't attack me. I will be focusing on a bread & butter campaign if I run Russia. Take care of my rivals in the meantime, mm'kay?"

Mind, I would prefer Russia outright being conquered and Marshall Planned into something completely different, but I would accept the other scenario if the outcome could be decent. In this case, Ukraine gets back Crimea and all other territories, plus security guarantees.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (2 children)

It's far more likely that China will take the East back while new Russia is in turmoil. Japan may decide it's time to retrieve the Kuriles and Sakhalin, too. And Siberia is ripe for independence, too. A broken up Russia would be better for the world imho. Obligatory: Fuck Russia. With a cactus. No lube...

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I don't think our positions are mutually exclusive. I am thinking Russia in the west getting the Marshall Plan reform treatment would be done, and what you described also happening. That would make it easier for the EU to handle the Russian territory closer to home.

Plus, China tearing off a haunch of Russia might be good for peace in the long run. It would allow Xi Ping to have a victorious legacy, without having to attack Taiwan. The Chinese tiger might sleep while digesting the territory it reclaimed from Russia.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago

I'm good with anything that neuters Russia. They are a curse on the world, as they are now. In your scenario, China gains back it's old possessions whilst learning that invading ones neighbours only results in bad things, so that's an extra bonus for the world imo.

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