2025 Papal Conclave

🏳️‍🌈 Luis Tagle (Philippines): Alberto Melloni, a historian based in Rome, told The Washington Post that Tagle, 67, was once considered to be Francis’ “rising star” while serving as pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization in the Philippines, and Tagle has previously criticized “harsh” and “severe” rhetoric used by clerics to describe the LGTBQ+ community, divorced people and unwed mothers.

🇨🇳 Pietro Parolin (Italy): Parolin, 70, was appointed the Vatican’s Secretary of State by Francis in 2014, and he will likely be seen as a candidate to succeed Francis because of his respect among secular diplomats, including for his negotiations with China and several Middle East countries, according to Vatican analysts. Parolin was involved in reaching an agreement between the Vatican and the Chinese government in 2018, though the Vatican was criticized for “selling out” to China’s communist government.

⛪ Robert Sarah (Guinea): Sarah, 79, is a prelate from Guinea and the former head of the Vatican’s liturgy office who has been considered a possible successor to Francis for years. Sarah is among the more conservative-leaning prospects and has opposed blessing same-sex couples, referring to the blessings as “heresy” and same-sex couples as “irregular,” while he has also reportedly called abortion the “greatest tragedy of our time” and previously warned about the “threat” of Islam.

⛪ Fridolin Ambongo (Congo): Ambongo, 65, the archbishop of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, was named a cardinal by Francis in 2019 and has since been considered one of his possible successors, The New York Times reports. Ambongo is one of nine members of the Council of Cardinals, an advisory group to Francis, and he led an opposition to Francis’ ruling in 2023 that churches should bless same-sex couples, writing “unions of persons of the same sex” are considered “intrinsically evil.”

🏳️‍🌈 Matteo Zuppi (Italy): Zuppi, 69, became the archbishop of Bologna, Italy, in 2015 and is known for his similarities to Francis, including a focus on migrants and the poor, Reuters reported, and he has defended Francis’ decision to bless same-sex couples. Zuppi is among the more progressive candidates for pontiff and is known for a “street priest” persona, like Francis, because he supports the poor and disenfranchised, though he opposes ordaining women as deacons and priests.

⛪ Peter Erdo (Hungary): Erdo, 71, the archbishop of Budapest and Hungary’s primate, is among the top candidates for pontiff, the Associated Press reports, after he was named the head of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences in 2005 and 2011, an earlier role that could help him draw more votes among voting European cardinals. Erdo has said there are “absolutely no grounds” for considering same-sex marriages “in any way similar or even remotely analogous to God’s plan for marriage and family,” and Erdo appeared to oppose Francis’ call for churches to support migrants in 2015.

⛪ Marc Ouellet (Canada): Ouellet, 80, was reportedly among the top candidates for pope in 2005 and 2013 and will likely be another contender in 2025, according to the Associated Press, as Ouellet has controlled the Vatican’s bishop office for over a decade. Ouellet leans conservative and opposes same-sex marriages and ordaining women as deacons, saying in 2021 that men and women should not be “placed completely on the same level from the point of view of ministry.”

❔/🏳️‍🌈 Mario Grech (Malta): The secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Grech, 68, shared largely conservative views before Francis was elected pope in 2013. In 2014, Grech called on the church to be more accepting of LGBTQ+ members, saying at the time Catholic rhetoric was harmful to LGBTQ+ members, and later expressed support for women as deacons.

❔ Jean-Marc Aveline (France): The archbishop of Marseille, France, became a cardinal in 2022 and holds similar beliefs to Francis, despite having cautioned about blessing same-sex couples. Aveline, 66, is known among French media for his resemblance to Pope John XXIII, and Francis quipped in 2021 his successor would be named Pope John XXIV in 2025.

With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the Catholic Church is preparing for a transition that will determine its direction for the foreseeable future. As the first Latin American pope, Francis brought significant change as Bishop of Rome, focusing on social justice, environmental issues and a more inclusive Church.

Now, the College of Cardinals prepares to gather at the Vatican for a conclave that will shape the Church's future. Their choice won't just name the next leader of 1.37 billion Catholics—it will set the course for doctrine, transparency and the Church's outreach to its flock.

Will the next pope continue Francis's progressive reforms, or will the cardinals pivot back toward theological conservatism? The answer will be clear when the symbolic white smoke rises from the Sistine Chapel. Francis's Influence on the Election

The next pope will face a Church shaped by Francis's appointments and reforms. His tenure saw major structural changes, including the decentralization of the Vatican's power and the appointment of more non-European cardinals than any of his predecessors.

However, his governance style has also left the College of Cardinals in an uncertain position. "He selected the majority of the cardinals who possess the right to vote," said Ulrich Lehner, professor of theology at the University of Notre Dame.

"However, his approach to governance, characterized by unilateral decisions made without consultation with the College of Cardinals, has made it impossible to form interpersonal relationships among them." Pope Francis presides over a Mass Pope Francis presides over a Mass on the Jubilee of The Armed Forces, Police and Security Personnel at St. Peter's Square on February 09, 2025 in Vatican City. Franco Origlia/Getty Images

A key issue for the conclave will be Francis's handling of sexual abuse cases, which has divided Church leaders. "Most importantly, can the voters trust that the person they elect is not a sexual predator who could be exposed?" Lehner asked.

According to Michelle Dillon, dean of the College of Liberal Arts at the University of New Hampshire, "Francis was consistently trying to bring much greater transparency and professionalism to the Curia." Yet, she also noted that some cardinals remain skeptical about his openness to secular engagement, fearing that the Church could lose its unique identity.

#How the Next Pope Is Chosen

The election of a pope follows centuries-old Vatican traditions. The College of Cardinals, composed of those under 80 years old, will vote in secret ballots inside the Sistine Chapel. A two-thirds majority is required to elect a new pope. If no consensus is reached, additional rounds of voting will continue until a candidate emerges with the necessary support. When a round of voting does not reach consensus, ballots are burned and the black smoke that appears from the Sistine Chapel chimney signals to those watching on television and in St. Peter's Square that the conclave continues.

When white smoke appears, a new pope has been chosen.

Dillon emphasized that the days leading up to the conclave will be crucial.

"There will be plenty of time and many face-to-face interpersonal opportunities during the mourning period for bishops and cardinals to informally confer with one another about their goals and desires for the conclave and its outcome," she said.

#Who Are the Leading Candidates?

As speculation builds, several high-ranking cardinals have emerged as top contenders. According to Vatican observers and bookmakers, the following candidates have the strongest odds. Here is a closer look at each of them.

Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Currently the betting favorite at 3:1 odds, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, is considered a strong contender to continue Pope Francis's progressive agenda. Tagle, an advocate for inclusion and evangelization, has significant experience leading the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and was a trusted figure in Francis's inner circle. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle attends a Mass with newly appointed cardinals presided by Pope Francis at St. Peter's Basilica on December 08, 2024 in Vatican City, Vatican. Pope Francis on Saturday, presiding at Holy Mass... Photo by Franco Origlia/Getty Images

"Overall, I think the fact that by my count over 100 of the eligible papal electors were appointed by Francis could have a profound effect on the outcome," said Cristina Traina, a professor at Northwestern University. "That is, we may not get a pendulum swing away from Francis' priorities."

Tagle's Asian heritage also makes him a compelling choice, as Catholicism is growing rapidly on the continent, particularly in the Philippines.

Pietro Parolin (Italy)

At 4:1 odds, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, is one of the most experienced Vatican officials. In his role as the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2013, he has played a major part in diplomatic affairs, including sensitive negotiations with China and Middle Eastern governments. Pietro Parolin Cardinal Secretary of State of the Vatican Pietro Parolin arrives to meet with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (unseen) at Schloss Bellevue on June 29, 2021 in Berlin, Germany. Germany and the Vatican are celebrating the... Photo by Adam Berry/Getty Images

Parolin is seen as a moderate theological candidate, someone who could provide stability while still maintaining some of Francis's reforms. His deep ties to Vatican bureaucracy make him a strong contender for those who favor continuity. Peter Turkson (Ghana)

Currently at 5:1 odds in betting markets, Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76, is a well-known figure in the Church's social justice circles. As former head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, Turkson has been vocal on issues such as climate change, poverty and economic justice. Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson Ghanaian cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson waits to exchange Christmas greetings with Pope Francis at the Clementina Hall on December 21, 2013 in Vatican City, Vatican. Photo by Franco Origlia/Vatican Pool/Getty Images

Turkson's election would mark a historic moment as the first African pope in centuries. The most recent African pontiff was Pope Gelasius, who served from 492 to 496 AD. Born in Rome to African parents, Gelasius was known for his extensive theological writings and strong advocacy for charity and justice for the poor.

Peter Erdő (Hungary)

A leading conservative candidate, Cardinal Peter Erdő, 72, is currently at 6:1 odds. A respected canon law scholar, Erdő has been a strong advocate for traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine. He previously served as head of the Council of European Bishops' Conferences and has emphasized theological orthodoxy. Peter Erdo Hungarian cardinal and archbisop of Budapest Peter Erdo attends the Pro Eligendo Romano Pontifice Mass at St Peter's Basilica, on March 12, 2013 in Vatican City, Vatican. Photo by Franco Origlia/Getty Images

For those seeking a return to the conservatism of John Paul II and Benedict XVI, Erdő would represent a major shift away from Francis's approach.

Angelo Scola (Italy)

At 8:1, Cardinal Angelo Scola, 82, is a long-standing papal contender. He was among the favorites in the 2013 conclave that ultimately elected Pope Francis. Scola, a former Archbishop of Milan, has deep theological roots and appeals to those who support a more centralized and hierarchical Church. Milan Angelo Scola Archbishop of Milan Angelo Scola speaks during his speech at the inauguration of the Accademiuc Year at Cattolica University on November 5, 2015 in Milan, Italy. Catholic University of Milan, is a university of Catholic... Photo by Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images

His traditionalist stance makes him a strong candidate for those looking to pivot away from Francis's reforms, but his age may work against him.

#What Happens Next?

A papal conclave typically begins between 15 and 20 days after a pope's death. That time allows for the funeral rites, a nine-day mourning period known as the novemdiales, and provides time for cardinals worldwide to travel to Vatican City. The outcome will remain uncertain until a pope is chosen behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, as ideological factions within the Church will weigh their options between continuity and a more conservative shift.

The next pope will inherit a Church at a crossroads—one grappling with declining influence in Europe and North America, growth in the Global South and ongoing internal debates about its future.