Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

Anti-science, inactivism, and unsupported conspiracy theories are not ok here.

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Of the 2,206 active leases in the Gulf of Mexico, only a fifth are producing oil, according to records from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which regulates offshore drilling. Oil industry executives and analysts say the current number of 448 oil-producing leases is unlikely to grow significantly, even if Trump makes good on promises to expand leasing opportunities and expedite drilling permits.

The market is saturated with oil, making companies reluctant to spend more money drilling because the added product will likely push prices down, cutting into profits.

“It’s not the regulations that are getting in the way, it’s the economics,” said Hugh Daigle, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Texas in Austin. “It’s true that there are a bunch of undeveloped leases in the Gulf, and it’ll stay that way if we continue to see low or stagnant oil prices.”

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A court [in the UK] has ruled that consent for two new Scottish oil and gas fields was granted unlawfully and their owners must seek fresh approval from the UK government before production can begin.

The written judgement on the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields [off Shetland] came after a case brought by environmental campaigners, Uplift and Greenpeace, at the Court of Session in Edinburgh.

In his judgement, Lord Ericht said a more detailed assessment of the fields' environmental impact was required, taking into account the effect on the climate of burning any fossil fuels extracted.

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Shell's Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea was originally approved by the previous UK Conservative government, and the industry regulator, in summer 2022.

Permission for the Rosebank oil development, 80 miles west of Shetland in the North Atlantic, was granted in autumn 2023.

In a 57-page judgement, Lord Ericht wrote that there was a public interest in having the decision "remade on a lawful basis" because of the effects of climate change - which he said outweighed the interests of the developers.

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Title & subtitle come from the article version of this newsletter

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Today, the United States Senate voted to confirm former Congressman Lee Zeldin as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, despite his lack of any real qualifications for the role. In his final year in Congress in 2022, Zeldin earned a paltry 5% on the League of Conservation Voters scorecard, which tracks the voting records of members of congress on critical environmental issues.

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This post uses a gift link with a few count limit. If it runs out, there is an archived copy of the article

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Abstract

Stable understory microclimates within undisturbed rainforests are often considered refugia against climate change. However, this assumption contrasts with emerging evidence of Neotropical bird population declines in intact rainforests. We assessed the vulnerability of resident rainforest birds to climatic variability, focusing on dry season severity characterized by hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall. Analyzing 4264 individual bird captures over 27 years, we found that harsher Amazonian dry seasons significantly reduced apparent survival for 24 of 29 species, with longer-lived species being more strongly affected. Our model predicted that a 1°C increase in average dry season temperature would reduce the mean apparent survival of the understory bird community by 63%. These findings directly link climate change to declining bird survival in the Amazon, challenging the notion that pristine rainforests can fully protect their biodiversity under increasingly severe climate conditions.

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