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The original was posted on /r/cryptocurrency by /u/superweep on 2023-12-19 18:15:18+00:00.
I was doing some research on previous Bitcoin events that were considered to be major. One of them was the introduction of Futures trading in mid december 2017. The paper has some interesting finds that are of course not directly correlated to the ETF event we see right in front of us, but the debate shows similarities. You can find the paper below this post, but I have picked some interesting stuff from it myself:
Two key findings summed up about the introduction of Futurews trading:
- exerted a downward impact on the USD Spot market returns
- exerted an upward impact volatility, kurtosis and liquidity, which became higher after futures were introduced
Some interesting take that show similarities in the debate taking place right now, that are written down in the paper too:
" One the key developments of Bitcoin was the introduction of futures trading which was seen as a sign that the financial system was beginning to accept Bitcoin as a tradeable speculative asset. The introduction was also important for Bitcoin traders as for the first time, they were able to easily hedge their spot positions "
Some takes from pro/op-ponents of Futures introduction who also published research papers:
- The launch of Bitcoin futures caused the crash of Bitcoin in 2018.
- Bitcoin futures trading had a negative effect on Bitcoin prices only in the first 19 minutes.
- The post-launch drop in Bitcoin prices is consistent with investor behaviour in traditional asset markets when futures are introduced for the first time.
- positive effects on the overall Bitcoin market, such as an increase in Bitcoin market efficiency.
- Etc.
The key findings of this paper are, via a simulation, the following regarding Futures introduction:
"If bitcoin futures had never been introduced, the USD bitcoin spot market return would be higher, volatility and kurtosis lower, skewness higher and finally, market liquidity lower."
Some interesting conclusions that I also see happening with the introduction of ETFs:
" Even when the only positive outcome associated with the introduction of Bitcoin futures is the rise in liquidity in the spot market, the effect is too small to make any real difference in terms of stabilizing the market."
" Specifically, for a few days following the introduction of the futures, an increase in spot market volatility is observed. The phenomenon reaches its peak after one week of the introduction of futures, after which it begins to fall."
All of this is interesting reading material that I have not done justice at all. I picked some parts out that I thought were interesting, but could lead to an interesting debate. Find the paper here!
And tell me how you feel!