this post was submitted on 22 Nov 2024
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World War III has officially begun, Ukraine’s ex-top general says (www.politico.eu)
submitted 2 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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"Because in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Soldiers from North Korea are standing in front of Ukraine. Let's be honest. Already in Ukraine, the Iranian 'Shahedis' are killing civilians absolutely openly, without any shame," said Zaluzhny, adding that North Korean and Chinese weapons are flying into Ukraine. Zaluzhny urged Ukraine's allies to draw the right conclusions. "It is still possible to stop it here, on the territory of Ukraine. But for some reason our partners do not want to understand this. It is obvious that Ukraine already has too many enemies. Ukraine will survive with technology, but it is not clear whether it can win this battle alone," he said.

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[–] [email protected] 31 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

My chain of reasoning:

  • if Ukraine loses (or has to enter a very unfavourable agreement), it's not due to Ukraine wanting to lose, but no longer having the means to oppose (after all, Russia is a bigger country and also inherited nearly all the weapons of the USSR, and that was a lot)
  • thus, if Ukraine loses, inability or unwillingness of allies to support them is involved
  • if subsequently, a victorious Russia recovers economically, Russia may undertake further conquests
  • the next conquest could be westward of Ukraine, and a member of NATO --> path A to a really bad war
  • however, Russia might be too exhausted to undertake another conquest soon, or might collapse economically, even into revolutionary conditions --> path to uncertain times
  • however, there's another conflict waiting to happen: China is systematically training its military for attacking Taiwan, and systematically threatening Taiwan with military maneuvers and political statemements
  • it should be noted that China has also had border conflicts with India and Vietnam, and territorial disputes with many more countries, though no claims against their sovereignity
  • if Ukraine loses, this implies that Western countries will abandon an ally if pressed hard enough
  • subsequently China will consider whether it can press Taiwan hard enough, and I think it will conclude "yes" due to proximity --> path B to a really bad war
  • this development might come to a stop though, if Taiwan should surprisingly announce on some year that it has nuclear weapons and conduct a test

Conclusion: I have doubts, but yes, there is a potential for a chain reaction if it's demonstrated that international law does not have enough backers (does not apply if you are big enough).