this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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*with 50 percent reliability.
Heck of an asterisk on this claim.
That sounds like a coin flip, but 50% reliability can be really useful.
If a model has 50% chance of completing a task that would cost me an hour - and I can easily check it was completed correctly - on average, I'm saving half of the time it would take to complete this.
That said, exponentials don't exist in the real world, we're just seeing the middle of a sigmoid curve, which will soon yield diminishing returns.
Yes, but the tricky thing is we have no idea when the seemingly exponential growth will flip over into the plateuing phase. We could be there already or it could be another 30 years.
For comparison Moores law is almost certainly a sigmoid too, but weve been seeing exponential growth for 50 years now.
Moore's law hasn't been exponential for ~15 years now.
If you are just talking transitor density I believe it still is, but even if not, my point was that it had exponential growth spanning over many decades.