This is an op-ed by Jennifer Parker, a defence and national security expert associate at the ANU’s National Security College. She has served for more than 20 years as a warfare officer in the Royal Australian Navy.
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A major flaw in Australia’s Taiwan debate is the simplistic “will we or won’t we intervene?” framing, which assumes any conflict would be confined to Taiwan. In reality, an invasion would be far more complex. The Taiwan Strait’s geography, weather and Taiwan’s defences already make it a formidable task. That challenge is amplified by expected US and Japanese intervention from bases in Japan and the Philippines, forces China would try to neutralise pre-emptively.
Any invasion would almost certainly immediately trigger a broader regional conflict involving one of Australia’s key allies and at least two of its closest security partners. In a region-wide conflict, Australia’s national security interests would be jeopardised, and it would have little choice but to respond. Its key role would be defending Australia and its sea lines of communication.
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Staying on the sidelines would be inconsistent with our national interests. Australia’s security, including maritime trade, would be directly threatened. Not to mention Australia’s obligations under the 1951 ANZUS Treaty.
It would also seriously damage Australia’s credibility with key security partners and regional neighbours. Moreover, if China resorts to force against Taiwan, it is unlikely to stop there. Beijing is also engaged in maritime and territorial disputes with South-East Asian states and South Korea and Japan. A successful invasion would embolden further aggression.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would not be an isolated act – it would trigger a regional conflict with direct consequences for Australia’s security. An invasion may not be imminent or inevitable, but China’s clear preparations demand serious attention. Australia must invest in its own defence – not because war is certain, but because deterrence depends on capability. And if deterrence fails, we must be ready to defend our vital interests.
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How many years now has China been just about to invade Taiwan? I swear I've been hearing this since I was 13. I really doubt they will ever militarily invade the PRC unless it is made to pose a direct threat to them.
Happy cake day!
This is some unfortunately weasely phrasing when it comes to international diplomacy. Don't forget Israel claimed that Iran was "posing a direct threat to them" before they proactively decided to fire missiles at Iran.
I certainly hope China doesn't invade Taiwan. But if they do, I have almost zero doubt that it will be after fabricating some sort of nonsense casus belli that gives them a veneer of legitimacy.
The People's Republic of China already take the official position that the Chinese Civil War is an ongoing conflict. And while I haven't looked much into the Republic of China (Taiwan) position on the ground, taking their constitution at face value, they officially claim mainland China is their territory. So I don't think the casus belli will be a problem, at least internally.