this post was submitted on 23 Jan 2023
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Ah thanks, a quick search on their website didn't show it.
There are more serious economic studies and forecasts and they don't forsee anything close to 4.5% shrinking of the economy. But I will have a closer look at the .pdf to see how they massaged their data to come to such a widely unrealistic outcome.
Edit: ah, it is already on the first page it seems. They just assume the year 2019 growth figures and extrapolate that as if the pandemic (!) and the war in Ukraine never happend 🤦
Edit2: Ugh, this is even worse than expected. The 3 page "study" doesn't even talk about 2023. Its from November 2022 and already hilariously bad for that. But from which of their asses they pulled the press-release numbers for 2023 is totally nebulous.
Again, as far as I'm aware, Germany doesn't have a serious plan to replace Russian energy this year. Currently, the energy prices are being softened by the fact that Germany filled up gas stores, but once they run out what exactly is the plan for refilling them?
It's also worth noting that, despite all the talk of replacing Russian energy, what's actually happening is that Germany, along with the rest of Europe, are importing Russian energy from resellers at a significant markup.
Significant increase in input costs certainly does look like it would lead to a significant recession, and we're already seeing significant portions of the industry shutting down:
Industry shutdown translates to people being laid off from their jobs driving up unemployment. That's what drives recessions historically.
I'd be curious to know the rationale behind your claim that it currently does not look like there will be a deep recession in 2023.
Long term gas futures are lower than pre-war prices meaning the market expects the gas prices to stay relatively cheap in the years to come. In fact there is an expected over-supply and Russia will have trouble even finding buyers at all but the most bargain-bin prices.
You need to lay off on your right-wing and Russian propaganda outlet news and read some serious economic forecasts. (Edit: yes the expected over-supply is partially because of lower demand due to an global economic downturn).
I'm not aware of any serious analysis claiming there are any long term trends of cheap gas futures. There is simply no reason for that to be the case logically speaking. It's not like huge new reserves of gas have magically become available. So, on what basis exactly are you claiming that gas will be cheap?
Meanwhile, with China reopening, there is going to be increased demand for energy, and in fact we're already seeing signs of that happening. That means that spot prices for gas will be going up as opposed to down. That's how supply and demand work. Anybody who is actually reading serious economic forecasts understands these things.
Meanwhile, you're just regurgitating liberal propaganda that everything is going great, and there aren't any problems. That's not serious economic analysis I'm afraid.
Yes I can see that you are "not aware". Maybe try to look outside of your media bubble a bit?
I am not saying everything is going great, quite the contrary. But high gas prices will not be the major issue, as depressed demand will ensure prices stay relatively low.
As for an serious analysis, maybe look at this.
I look at the liberal media bubble all the time, I don't find it to be terrible convincing.
You do realize that depressed demand is a sign of reduced economic activity otherwise known as a recession?
However, as I've repeatedly noted in this thread and you've repeatedly ignored, the reason European demand is low is largely a factor of Europe having stocked up the reserves using Russian pipeline gas while it was available. Surely even you can understand that refilling these reserves will drive demand up.
Your own link is saying precisely what I'm telling you:
LNG prices declined from their peaks, but remain vastly more expensive than pipeline gas as well as being volatile. The article admits this:
The article also dances around the elephant in the room which is what happens when gas reserves run out, which is projected to happen in spring to summer this year. It indirectly alludes to the fact that Europe will be forced to buy LNG, but doesn't delve into implications of that statement. One particular problem it avoids discussing is how the LNG will be stored given that you can't reuse storage facilities for pipeline gas for it.
Finally, the predictions about oil are also far less optimistic when you look at them closely:
What this says is that global oil output is expected to shrink, and there is much uncertainty around oil prices in the near future. The article doesn't even mention the fact that US is rapidly draining its strategic reserve right now, and will lose the ability to stabilize prices once it's depleted.
Seems that your upbeat outlook may stem from your poor reading comprehension rather than your sources contradicting what I'm telling you.
You need to work on your reading comprehension skills, both for what I write and what is clearly forecasted in the study I linked. I have the strong impression you only skimmed that study and didn't actually understand what the forecast tells.
I have no "upbeat" outlook, how many times do I need to repeat that?
It is simply that the story is a bit more complex than right-wing propaganda outlets want to make you believe.
Edit: and yes the "liberal media bubble" as you call it is usually equally uninformed, but at least they don't try to push a political agenda by fearmongering with absurd numbers they pull out of their ass apparently.
I've addressed your link point by point in my previous comment. I have the strong impression that you didn't actually read it or understand it.
You keep contradicting yourself. You said:
and
That's a pretty upbeat outlook given that neither of these things are likely scenarios.
Your own outlet says precisely what I'm saying. I've even took the time to break down the points it makes for you in the prior reply. You keep using a logical fallacy as aan argument here. Instead of addressing on the points being made, you simply use ad hominem to dismiss them.
Liberal outlets have an agenda of pretending that the economic war with Russia is not having a significant impact on western economies. And the fact that you don't understand that is frankly astonishing.