Predictions

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SpaceX will NOT put any human on Mars by 2030 (www.metaculus.com)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/predictions

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Musk notes if SpaceX "gets lucky and things go according to plan", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025.

note that the source for this quote was a Washington Post link which is now 404 but which you can see from the URL was from 2016 (as is the question linked in this post).

the graph from 2016 until present is funny; it's gone from 80% likely at the start of 2020 to just 1% today

...but, note that the question of landing anything there by 2030 is still at 60%!

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