this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2022
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No one really knows what Russia is trying to do at this point. They could just be holding a knife to Ukraine's neck to get more concessions. Or maybe Russia wants a larger slice off eastern Ukraine. But they are absolutely in position to attack.
English language media induces some level of doubt, but Russia has been pretty clear about what the stakes are. Ukraine needs to respect the autonomy that Eastern Russian-speaking territories have demanded, and that the Ukrainian government has agreed to. Unlike the previous situation in Crimea, the Russian government does not take this lightly, even though the current situation isn't new or seeing particular developments.
Unlike the previous situation in Crimea? They took it by military force. The same playbook is going on here, with the Russian government currently moving to recognize the Donbass region as independent. To justify that, there was a supposed IED found that clearly was a false flag operation. Putin immediately started blabbering about "genocide". I find it hard to see this as anything other than trying to rile up the people in the region who consume a lot of Russian-language media that will be echoing Putin's words.
It seems that all of Ukraine slept through the attack. Or maybe they were referring to Feburary 16, 2023.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-european-union-diplomats-leave/
That more or less echoes what I just said. It's really hard to tell from the outside what Russia is planning. It has, however, already started with a litany of cyberattacks on Ukrainian civilian and military targets.
So Russia overslept its own invasion date? Which it helpfully told to western officials beforehand?
Its not so hard to tell what Russia is planning if you follow Russian news. For one thing, they certainly dont plan an invasion of Ukraine, because there is absolutely nothing of value left after 8 years of mismanagement by the coup regime. Most of the industry was dismantled, and most skilled people left the country. Now there is only corruption.
Again, this is all Western countries and Ukraine trying to read Russian intentions from troop build ups, an increase in cyber attacks, shaky intelligence, etc. Exactly no one is saying that Russia is absolutely going to invade in full force. They are saying Russia is putting itself in the position to do so. It looks like this is partially to avoid getting into any sticky spots with their own citizens being stuck in the middle of a Russian invasion.
There's a constant war with separatists and Russian invaders that's draining the country. There's also corruption, but that's been endemic for decades. So yes, there is a problem with a brain drain. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by industry being dismantled. GDP is recovering after a sharp dip after 2013, but still not back to its height.
Exactly, shaky intelligence. I would even say lies, because nothing they say has any relation with reality. Russia is not the one who starts wars, but the one who ends them. And the Russian government keeps repeating day after day that they wont invade Ukraine. They are a million times more trustworthy than the war criminals in Washington or London.
There are no Russian invaders. If you think otherwise, show me a single picture of a Donbass soldier with Russian insignias. Ukraine lost at least 10 million people (20% of the population) since the collapse of the USSR. And there hasnt been a proper census in years, so in reality its probably much lower. The only reason the country hasnt collapsed is because western countries are pumping in billions of us dollars.