this post was submitted on 07 Mar 2022
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Quite obviously not going to happen at this point. The only question at this point is how long the people of Ukraine are going to be made to suffer, and the west appears to determined to ensure that there is a maximum amount of suffering by blocking any meaningful negotiations and egging Ukraine on to keep fighting.
Ah yes, because it's the west's fault for invading Ukraine and the west is in control of the Russian military so they could pull out anytime. Of course Ukraine clearly doesn't speak for itself as well and It's not like Zelensky hasn't appealed to Russia to stop?
It's all so clear.
While nothing justified Russian invasion of Ukraine, it's reductionist to ignore the reasons behind why the invasion happened. The war is a result of tensions that were largely escalated by NATO, and plenty of experts in the west have been warning about this for many years now. Here's what Chomsky has to say on the issue recently:
https://truthout.org/articles/us-approach-to-ukraine-and-russia-has-left-the-domain-of-rational-discourse/
https://truthout.org/articles/noam-chomsky-us-military-escalation-against-russia-would-have-no-victors/
50 prominent foreign policy experts (former senators, military officers, diplomats, etc.) sent an open letter to Clinton outlining their opposition to NATO expansion back in 1997:
George Kennan, arguably America's greatest ever foreign policy strategist, the architect of the U.S. cold war strategy warned that NATO expansion was a "tragic mistake" that ought to ultimately provoke a "bad reaction from Russia" back in 1998.
Jack F. Matlock Jr., US Ambassador to the Soviet Union from 1987-1991, warning in 1997 that NATO expansion was "the most profound strategic blunder, [encouraging] a chain of events that could produce the most serious security threat [...] since the Soviet Union collapsed"
Academics, such as John Mearsheimer, gave talks explaining why NATO actions would ultimately lead to conflict this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
These and many other voices were marginalized, silenced, and ignored. Yet, now people are trying to rewrite history and pretend that Russia attacked Ukraine out of the blue and completely unprovoked.
Thanks for the resources.
I fail to understand the actual treat to Russia from NATO. Because even if all bordering countries would join NATO. There is no way Russia will ever get attacked. It's has the 1st or 2nd largest nuclear arsenal in the world. There is no way a neighbor would attack Russia. A neighbor is even more easy to bomb than the USA. Even with much less nuclear power, the level of deterrence would be well enough to fear nothing from a military standpoint.
So a preventive war for this makes no sense. The Russian government can still claim otherwise to have an excuse to start this war.
Even if Ukraine would have been more successfully manipulated by the western governments than the Russian one. A preventive war still makes no sense. It's not like the Russian government care for the Ukrainian people having a right of self-determination and would want to help them do so.
The only things that matters in the end is that Russia sees NATO as a threat, and NATO has done absolutely nothing to change that perception. Simply repeating that NATO isn't a threat while continuously expanding it towards the Russian border and attacking countries for past 30 years isn't exactly helping make the case that it's a benign entity.
The irony with Russia's actions here is they may well backfire. Countries that were previously debating membership may finally decide that any downside of NATO membership is nothing compared to the threat of being the next country that Russia invades. Russia already has invaded two of its neighbors and holds the loyalties of Belarus under a dictator. Russia has openly threatened Finland and Sweden. The invasion of Ukraine has caused support for membership to surge in both of those countries.
Countries are joining NATO because they fear Russia. If Russia didn't want countries joining NATO, maybe they shouldn't threaten their neighbors? It's not exactly making the case that it's a benign entity.
I don't think you understand what's going to happen to western economies in the coming months. As energy prices shoot through the roof that means that costs for everything will as well. All the necessities, food, transport, are going to become unaffordable for the vast majority of the people. I wonder what will happen then...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-gas-prices-trading-at-equivalent-of-over-500-per-barrel-11646660413
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Options-Traders-Are-Betting-On-300-Oil.html
I'm aware that there will be a severe cost, especially to Europe. I see it as that much more significant, that countries are willing to significantly impact their own economy to protect Ukraine. This is of course in the midst of existing supply chain issues. I'm sad that the people who are going to be hurt the most will ultimately be your everyday Russia person and not the richest Russians who have more power to strongarm Putin out of power. Any damage the West will feel with by felt many times over in Russia, given how much smaller their economy is.
These decisions were made in hysteria without any preparation or planning. The results will be horrific and most people in Europe are not prepared for this. Russia planned for this for nearly a decade and thinking that the damage Russia will feel will be greater than the damage the west feels is utterly delusional. Western bankers understand this and that's precisely why they all begged not to do this.
Obviously, there's nothing I can say to convince you, but we'll all see what will be happening in the coming months.