Technology
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That is not entirely correct. It would be trivial to block requests on port 5222/5269, though as you said actually blocking the protocol itself would require deep-packet inspection (because you could run it on port 443 for example).
Then you can of course run on top of Tor/I2P (or equivalent) for federation. It's not exactly game over when a protocol is blocked, but the stakes are high. You'll end up in prison for defying state censorship.