Ukraine

Yeah, but that was dependent on the vaguery of dozens of political processes.

Russia is expending way more resources than they produce. We don't know when they'll run out of metaphorical furniture to burn for heat, but we know that it will be sometime. No politics needed, just cold hard material reality.

It could have been, but Russia doesn't have any upcoming elections that can save their ass. They're also fighting a proficient enemy that is killing thousands of Russians a week and destroying shit more quickly than they can put out the fires. Trump on the other hand was fighting a broken system that couldn't even deal with blatant blocking of justice by compromised judges.

The thing, here is no one needs to do anything for the consequences to manifest. And preventing the consequences is really hard work and a delicate balancing act. So there is that.