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The original was posted on /r/gunners by /u/HustlinInTheHall on 2025-01-28 15:20:12+00:00.
I know most of the narrative around the last CL matchday is we basically guaranteed a top 8 finish to avoid a two-legged playoff. That's critical so we have a chance to be nearly healthy for our next CL knockout games, but with the new seeding and bracket design we really should be taking the opportunity for a top 4 finish if we can.
It's extremely unlikely we get into the top 2, but being in 3rd or 4th means that our most likely opponent would be the teams finishing in the 13th/14th spot or 19th/20th.
Because some top teams have struggled in the league phase that doesn't mean we avoid all the other big teams, but at least the way I project it we'd likely face one of Lille, Feyenoord, Brest, or Celtic. City could squeeze into that 20th spot and Monaco, PSG, Juventus, are lurking as well for those 13/14 spots. There are no easy CL matches, but the alternative is a hell of a lot worse.
Contrast that with the path we'd face if we fell into the 5/6 spot, we'd likely be playing one of Madrid, Atalanta, Bayern, City, PSV, Dortmund, Leverkusen depending on how those 11/12 and 19-22 spots work out. The 7/8 spot is even worse, where we're basically guaranteed to have to get through a very tough opponent in the R16 and then face one of either Liverpool or Barcelona in the quartersβif you even get there.