Asklemmy

everyone in here gleefully shitting on op (in a rather unfriendly fashion btw)

getting hung up on the 1:99 thing, when what they actually said was

As long as the percentage is not 100%

obviously i'm not saying op has presented firm evidence of the supernatural. but the irony of supposedly espousing the scientific method, while completely ignoring the critical part of op's argument.

who here is claiming to know 100.000000% of all supernatural evidence is absolutely disproven? that would be an unscientific claim to make, so why infer it?

is the remaining 10^-^^x^ % guaranteed "proof" of ghosts/aliens? imo no, but it isn't unreasonable to consider it may suggest something beyond our current reproducible measurement capacity (which has eg. historically been filed under "ghosts"). therefore the ridicule in this thread - rather than friendly/educational discussion - is quite disappointing.

it's not exactly reasonable to assume we're at the apex of human sensory capability, history is full of this kind of misplaced hubris.

until the invention of the microscope, germs were just "vibes" and "spirits"

By this logic, if I post 10000 videos claiming 2+2=5, it becomes true by 'statistics'?
To answer your question though, statistics are not predetermined independently from the truth. Truth is the basis and the number of claims for any statement does not change that. By assuming that 1% of all sightings are real, you already assumed that aliens must exist. The probability for aliens being real under the assumption that aliens are real is 100%, but you just made the premise up. This is not how statistics work.
There are many examples from the past, like witches, werewolves, vampires, giants, ... People used to claim their existence but not anymore. By your reasoning they must have existed back then but suddenly they dont anymore?
Also how come ghosts and aliens exist almost exclusively in the US? There are almost no reports in any other country.
Just for fun, Ill try to come up with an example using your 'statistics', I wonder if you can argue against it without invalidating the reasoning in your post.
There are 8bn people on earth. They are all reporting that they themselves are human. Even if 99.999% of those reports are true, that leaves 80,000 non-humans amongst them.

TL:DR lies dont become true just because they are being told often.

Your "statistics" are fantasy numbers, not statistics. And statistics or probabilities, no matter how low or high, are not proof.

Dude, if you wanna believe in ghosts and aliens, just say you think they are real because vibes.

Don't try to justify it with a clunky, misunderstood, and incorrect usage of "statistics."

I was interested in your post title.

But your post suggests your title was misinformed.

Your premise is "Ghosts must be real because an arbitrary 1% of ghost sightings must be real". That's not statistics, that's you trying to convince yourself you're right by misusing math.

Then all the gods must be real too according to your statistics. Now tell me, which is the right one to follow? I better pick a side soon

You don't understand statistics at all.

An assumption of 99% false sightings is not a statistic. Statistics are analyses of measured data, not assumptions. To know the actual percentage of true sightings, you’d first have to confirm that some sightings are actually true, which would require some actual evidence of ghosts/aliens.

Consider the inverse for a moment: if ghosts/aliens don’t actually exist, then the percentage of false sightings must be 100%, not 99.9%. As long as you start with the assumption that there are some true sightings, you’re just starting with the assumption that ghosts/aliens are real.

There's an uncountable number of pictures claiming the Loch Ness Monster is real; do you believe in it, too? What about all of the other cryptids? If your logic is sound, it should be able to be applied to everything else that fits the same criteria. If not, why do you apply a lower burdon of proof to aliens and ghosts than to everything else?

I won't dispute your claim, as your argument is flawed from the beginning.

But answer me this: What's the expiration date on ghosts? There has to be one, because otherwise there would be a lot more ghosts from any and all eras.

And that includes Neolithic era ghosts.

And what about the Neanderthals? And dinosaurs? Why do we never hear of ghosts from other species?

You could really use a basic philosophy and logic education. Like one or two community college 100-level classes on critical thinking.

Statistics don't make something real.

Specially when those statistics are related only to human perception and not a single scientific evidence.

So, no, statistics doesn't make me believe in something.

Using this approach, everything that can't be disproven must exist

Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true.

Yes, if you assume something is true then you can conclude that it is true.

I think you may be misunderstanding how statistics works.

nice try ghostie , go back to your void

They're two very different things. One is supernatural one is simply unknown.

Statistically, yes, life on other planets probably exists in some form as there's just so many. But whether they've contacted, visited or even known about us - I don't think so. Conspiracists will think secrets are being hidden but that's what makes them feel important.

Ghosts - nah. There's no proof beyond human imagination.

Ghosts don’t even make sense scientifically. There has not been a single bit of evidence because Videos and photos on their own never proof anything. Aliens on the other hand are just lifeforms on other planets. We ourselves are proof that life exists so the probability of more is not 0. We don’t need sketchy photos as proof for that and they will probably never visit us anyways.

Flies eat poop, and theres a lot of them. Can't all be wrong. Even if 1% of them are right to do so, you should eat poop.