tldr : 2022-03-04
Maxim Mironov ~...IE.Business.School~
( ... Russia is ) fucked.
this post was submitted on 04 Mar 2022
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It's pretty weird how nobody is talking about the impact the economic war is going to have on the west and particularly Europe. Russia has been preparing for this, it's largely self sufficient for necessities, and it can get anything it needs from India and China. These are just plain facts.
On the other hand, Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for both food and energy as well as a multitude of other commodities. For example, things like chip production will be affected. I have to wonder how western public which is utterly convinced that it's only Russia that will suffer will react as the prices for necessities continue to skyrocket and commodities start disappearing.
It's weird only if you think that Russia is important. It hasn't been a superpower for thirty years and even then, it was a second rate one. Since then it's found itself as a mafia state with some influence, but still an oversized ego. The sanctions will leave it as a rogue state. They'll sit at the kid's table with blustery North Korea, both waving nukes like baby rattles. Until the Russians do what they've always done, and overthrow their Tzar.
China needs it's own chips. It's not going to carry Russia at it's own expense. And you imagine the rest of the world will notice? The pandemic has incentivized local manufacture again, so China will be dealing with it's own economic problems. Just as their housing boom explodes. They'll likely demand huge concessions from Russia in resources because of this. I hope, for your sake, your optimism doesn't lead you to buy the dip once the Russian stock market opens again.
It's weird that you don't understand basic math or perhaps aren't aware that Russia is a huge global exporter. You seem to be shamefully ignorant on the subject of Russia, yet you have very strong opinions about it. This is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Meanwhile, China will most certainly become the biggest beneficiary of all this going forward. This conflict has finally pushed Russia firmly into Chinese sphere of influence and that means China has secured much of its food and energy needs. People have been predicting the collapse of China's economy for like 30 years now, it's adorable that people keep clinging to this narrative.
Finally, the pandemic didn't actually result in any significant move towards local manufacture that I'm aware of. Perhaps you can provide some citations to support your claim there.
So Russia is self-sufficient and doesn't need to trade or it's a huge global exporter? Which is it?
Russia can be self sufficient and be a huge global exporter at the same time, what is the contradiction here exactly?
It's neither though. Can Russia replace a single one of all the jets it lost today? Nope. It can't make it's own computer chips. That's why they held back so long. But now, in desperation, they must risk them. In contested airspace, where they are getting picked off.
Is Russia hugely exporting anything? Not at the moment.
Are you suggesting Russia somehow forgot how to make jets? Russia has been making its own computer chips since 2014, and in fact its been their policy that all the military equipment must use domestic chips. You continue to show yourself to be an utter ignoramus on the subject of Russia. And yes, Russia is hugely exporting everything at the moment including to western countries. To put it bluntly, you're an idiot who continues to spread misinformation on this site. Every comment you make is full of utter nonsense that can be disproved by two minutes of googling. You are a troll.
All those Russian jets shot down today are irreplaceable after the sanctions. They could hardly afford them before. Face it, mafia states aren't very efficient if there's corruption all down the line. Getting pissy doesn't change the reality of it.
You keep repeating that because you don't understand what you're talking about. You are a shameless charlatan. Meanwhile, here's what actual experts have to say about all this
The shipping giants are like commercial red blood corpuscles, carrying the oxygen-equivalent goods that allow the vital organs of the global economy to function.
The inability of Western firms to ship consumer goods to Russia will hurt, depriving them of what has become one of the world’s most lucrative markets. Of far more significance will be the inflation generated by the lack of commodity and raw material exports from Russia – not just energy, but food and metals.
Consider also that fertiliser is made using natural gas and potash – with Russia and its ally Belarus accounting for two fifths of the world’s potash exports. That explains why fertiliser prices are soaring across the Western world. And the resulting rise in cultivation costs will, inevitably, drive up food prices too.
Much has been made of the extent of the Western world’s sanctions – and rightly so. To see the likes of the US and UK joined by Switzerland and Japan in effectively declaring economic war on Russia is jaw-dropping.
The question becomes, is it worth the price? Did Chamberlain trade Germany's neighbors for "peace in our time?" Or did unchecked Nazi aggression only lead to a escalation of worse outcomes? You're advocating that just letting Putin have Ukraine because prices will become too high? But he'd clearly move on to the rest of his lost Soviet empire, with the same phony tactics. Is that worth the loss of "lucrative markets"? Yes, it is.
People like you act tough because you don't think that you're going to be personally affected by all this. We'll see what kind of tune you'll be singing once the reality sets in.
Meanwhile, don't pretend to give a shit about the people of Ukraine. The west overthrew their democratic government to put a right wing regime in place that's been waging a civil war for the past eight years. And you ghouls have been goading Ukraine to fight Russia pretending that you were going to support it. Then when Russia invaded the west didn't lift a finger to help. The blood is on the hands of people like you who have been fanning the flames of war and cheering all this on. You're a soulless ghoul.
Use the sponge between your ears. The west thrived during the Cold War, while the Soviet Union went broke. Tell me again, how Russia -- alone this time -- is vital to the world's economy? They'll just become a Chinese client state, at best.
If you care about the Ukrainians, go protest in Moscow to end Putin's war, along with all those brave Russians. All your lies are pathetically transparent.
read a book for once in your life ignoramus https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52962238-the-changing-world-order
You seem very butt hurt that Putin fell for all those NATO tricks. The world may be changing, but Russia just wrote itself out. The world sees it for the paper tiger it is.
You're like baby Goebbels thinking that if you just keep repeating nonsense over and over it's going to magically become truth. You may not have any interest in engaging with reality, but the reality doesn't care what you think and you'll get to experience it soon enough.
Stop crying already. Go buy some rubles if you're so sure in the lies you chose to believe. Walk to Russia, if you love it so much. Because all the flights there are cancelled. Just like Putin.
You're the only one who's been crying here, and you're going to be doing a lot more of that in the coming months. I look forward to all the mental gymnastics you'll be performing.
Russia has a nominal GDP of $1.710 trillion (2021), which isn't that big on the global scheme. Now compare that to the state of Texas by iself has a nominal GDP of $2.0 trillion (2021). Canada has a bigger GDP of $2.016 trillion (2021).
Russia is really not in a position to sustain all these sanctions for an extended period of time.
According to The Economist, the Russian currency should've been worth around 70% more against the U.S. dollar than its current level of around as calculated using Big Mac Index. This means that real Russia's economy is bigger than Germany's. https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index
However, the more important part is that Russia is one of the biggest commodity exporters in the world, and there aren't any readily available replacements. This includes things like food, fertilizer, titanium, energy, and many other things. This notion that Russia is some irrelevant country in the global scheme of things is beyond hilarious. And if you look at what's happening to the global economy as we speak then you'll see just how deranged this notion is.
Western media is so delusional. Russia will happily trade with China (biggest economy in the world), and most other countries except a few western ones that matter less and less. Europe is going to freeze and destroy its industry, as it relies completely on Russian energy.
This implies that Russian media is the truth? It lies to it's people, to the west, and judging by the failed invasion, to itself. How it spinning delayed elections, martial law, criminalizing protest? Delusion?
The Europe will allow Russia to sell what they require until they make more secure arrangements. It's a very poor choice to leave your energy in the hands of a belligerent aggressor. In the meanwhile, the sanctions will grind Russia into bankruptcy. Obama tried a soft touch, but Putin didn't get the message. It would have been cheaper stay in your own country.
If you still can't wrap your head around the fact that Europe is more dependent on Russia than the other way around, I really don't know what else to tell you. Life is going to get very hard for you in the near future though.
Very soon we shall see who lives in delusion and who lives in reality. Judging by all the lies that Russia has told, I feel confident. Let's find out.
We will definitely find out soon. Probably within a few months.
Based on understanding basic math and the amount of imports Europe relies on from Russia I feel pretty confident as well. Let's find out.
Europe could be pretty self sufficient as well, but it chose to engage in trade for the benefit of both sides and also as a way to make war more difficult (very explicitly in the case of German energy imports)
Some things will definitely get more expensive in the short run, but on the positive side this will speed up transition to renewable energies and less food waste (through animal production etc).
But in the end most of the goods will probably just be shuffled around though. China will import more wheat from Russia at slightly lower prices while the current non-russian suppliers will export to the West at slightly higher prices.
If this accelerates energy transition off fossil fuels that would certainly be a positive, however we should remember that the whole reason Germany asked Russia to build nord stream 2 was due to the fact that stuff like wind and solar wasn't meeting demand. Dismantling nuclear turned out to be a bad idea. However, none of this will happen in the short term and there is no credible replacement for energy imports from Russia.
I'm curious who this Julianus person is. Makes their account three days ago. Only posts propaganda about Russia-Ukraine. Maybe they are someone's alt who are too scared to show their true thoughts on their main account. Or maybe they are a glowie looking to sow division in one of the few networks that is immune from state department censorship.
It is certainly not immune from state department propaganda from both side of the war.
Don't like the message, so you attack the messenger? I'm just sick and tired of Russian propaganda. Power doesn't come from lies, it comes from working on your economy. Russia made a strategic choice to double down on information war. It seemed so cheap and effective! But we see today that if you ignore truck maintenance instead, your lies don't roll those invading columns.
They never did learn, did they? Remember this old joke?
The train breaks down. Lenin tries to rally the workers to work together and get the train running again. When that fails, Stalin lines up all the workers and shoots them. When that doesn't help, Khrushchev tries to reform the workers back to life. When that also fails, Brezhnev pulls down all the curtains in the rail car and says "let's just pretend the train is moving."
Face it, the train isn't moving.