HDDs are getting cheaper at the high end.
SSDs are still new enough that they are still figuring out how to get economic viability where HDDs were a decade ago.
1TB for $100 is new in NVMEs for example.
this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2023
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If you consider inflation, they have come down kinda? lol
*stares at 20TB for $280 Seagate Exos*
Does it really need to?
Already asking for alot.
This is a bit of a cherry pick.
Sure the drives are dropping slower but at the end of the day, I have a mental 'limit' on hard drive prices.
I paid $250 AUD for 3TB once.
Then I paid $250 AUD for 5TB
Then 8 and finally, 16.
It's taken some time but it continues to evolve. It's going to take a very long time before an SSD which lasts in excess of 5 to 10 years, matches HDD speeds (you heard me) and costs less than $250 AUD for 16TB.
HDDs have hit a wall of physics, not of engineering. Well technically it still is engineering but the issues are ones that require new better understanding of physics to solve.
Me I am hype for the LTO price crashing on the next few years.
I'd assume there really isn't much room for HDD prices to come down in contrast to SSDs since the latter always fetched a premium until the technology started becoming more commonplace.
I think it's simply a matter of physical limitations, we basically reached the physical limit of how hard disk work storing while ssd relie on microchips and we are becoming capable of making more and more circuitry in the same amount of silicon which makes it cheaper
$16.99 ...what are your thoughts on it? For the price I'm thinking of trying a few out, but I'm learning about datahoarding first.
Spinning rust storage prices are hold in place by the WD/Seagate cartel.
They can't do the same shit with Samsung, Micron, intel, etc. in the game.
That has been the case since the hard drive crisis from the end of 2011. Well, SSDs stagnated or even went a little up over a 1-2 years period a few years back but now they're back in full swing. If this continues (which isn't a given, I'd say it's 50/50 chances) it'll be hard to justify spinning rust (all the "but but but unpowered SSDs can lose data in as little as X time" aside).
If they ever stop producing hard drives, I'll have to start burning archival discs or something.
I don't think hard drives are going away anytime soon. Seagate just releases their dual actuator drives to market recently so not only are hdds not going away but they're still actively being innovated and improved upon.
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For what it's worth, we're coming off of the bottom of a bust cycle in the NAND flash space.
The OP's graphs basically capture the NAND market from the previous boom through the current bust. So from that specific perspective, SSD prices have been dropping like a rock. The only catch with that window is that it fails to capture the cyclical nature of the market - and thus fails to illustrate how SSD prices go back up.
In practice, SSD prices have hit their lowest point. They are going to rebound here until the next bust in 2-3 years.
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in my country 1 tb nvme ssd are cheaper than 2.5 inch sata HDD of same size, and it sucks because my server is 10 year old and has only sata ports
I believe that is just the nature of the beast. SSDs are much simpler from a manufacturing standpoint and benefit from general advances in chip production that keep driving the costs down.
NANDs are still produced in 14-15nm afaik. The only reason they got more capacity is 3d stacking but that has an obvious cost wall.
The timescale is rather short in the grand scheme of things and SSDs have been massively oversupplied in the last little over a year. We'll have to wait and see how this develops, SSD prices could start to rise if the correct for the oversupply.
3 years ago I paid $280 for an 18TB Easystore this year I paid $200, both were the best deals of the year so I'd say prices are still coming down just more slowly than we'd maybe like.
Not only a short timescale, but one that starts in the middle of the very outlier economic conditions brought about by COVID and the responses to it.
M.2 ssd are tge biggest deal but i only have one slot
can someone help me figure out why they arent going down?
OP cherry picked info to say what they wanted to
One day I shall have a full nvme NAS with 12x 8TD nvme disks? :D
The main cause is that when it comes to 12TB HDDs and higher , there are only a few manufacturers like WD, Seagate, and Toshiba. However, in the case of SSDs, everyone seems to be making one—MSI, Gigabyte, Samsung, Asus, and more. With HDDs, there's no real competition based on cost or price anymore; it's more about who can reach 40 or 50TB first. who can reach 40 or 50TB first.
Supply and demand.
SSD/NVMe prices have fallen dramatically and offer big performance, space and power efficiency benefits to most users. Many computer enclosures don't even have bays to install 3.5" HDD's anymore. If you're building a PC for a user desktop or buying a laptop, most users will be more than satisfied with one or two NVMe sticks on the motherboard. There's many more desktops and laptops than servers, so demand is higher and storage manufacturers have accommodated by shifting their production capacity to that product line.
So storage manufacturers have devoted more effort into maximizing materials and manufacturing efficiency/capacity to SSD/NVMe's than HDD's to accommodate consumer demand. HDD's are now being considered more of a lower-volume niche/enterprise product, where capacity is more of a driver than price.
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Pretty common. Drive manufacturers aren’t able to reduce costs much because most of the cost cutting measures were figured out already. With SSDs there is still plenty of opportunity
Now do 18TB SSDs.
In the $300 range…
Even if they’re “only” SATA speeds, that would be such a game changer for a NAS
SSD prices will likely rise in 2024. The market has been massively oversupplied, but they are reducing manufacturing to compensate. It will take some time to reflect in the MSRP but it's coming. Buy now while it's cheap!
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Again, cherry picking by only using mid sized HDDs against low capacity SSDs.
Ignoring this graph.
The 2tb HDD I have in my build list cost about the same as the 1tb Samsung m2.
At that point I might as well go for a 2tb ssd honestly.
12tb is mid size now? shame that this hobby got expensive so quick with larger drives costing way more than the usual midpoint
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this is actually bad news, because el cheapo ssds are not good for "unpowered" long time storage
expensive 1 bit per cell ssds maybe, but not multiple bits per cell (and those are the cheap types of ssds)
so for long time hoarders nothing really changes until hdd supply lasts, let's hope hdd supply will last for long years
1 bit per cell ssds
Are they even there on the market anymore? I couldn't find any in my country's dominant tech store chain, and there are barely any MLC drives (it's just Samsung SM883 up to 1TB and Dell 400 up to 480GB)
Which is more susceptible to an EMP, an SSD or an HDD?
But large SSDs still seem to be really high priced.
Like I have 300TB on HDDs. The largest reasonably priced SSD seems to be the Samsung 870 QVO at like $300.
But I really don’t want to have to connect and manage 38 disks…
And at $300 per, that’s over $11,000
Meanwhile I could get 17 18TB HDDs for $3000.
Over $8000 cheaper which is a lot IMO, and 17 disks isn’t so hard to manage compared to 38 IMO.
Well, it is still not comparable to the $/tb ratio offered by HDDs and I don't really think it will be close to it in the future. Also, they are used for different use cases, so I do not see any reason to compare it now.
Graph a 2TB and 4TB HDD
It's cute how OP is comparing enterprise-grade HDDs with 5y warranty, with the trashiest consumer-grade SSDs with 2y warranty, some of which are QLC garbage that cannot be reliably used for long-term storage.
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And a Toshiba N300 is the lowest quality drive out there.
First of all, on all your HDD price graphs there is a clear downward trend.
Secondly the way you are making the comparison doesn't make sense. On a device SKU level, a particular model of HDD is of course going to remain stable for the life cycle of that model because it's a complete monolithic design, a HDD factory kitted out for a particular model does just that and nothing else.
A SSD drive on the other hand is just a repackaging of flash chips, if Crucial manages to buy cheaper chips that fit you bet they are going to use them. And the chip fab can make many different chips, not just one model so it's not comparable economics at all.
What you need to do is compare price/TB on the current market, not of 3 year old devices.
What’ll be extremely nice is when the price per TB is less on an SSD than a hard drive.
Might be a while, but I would gladly take SATA speeds if that’s what it meant to get to that price.
They have gotten low enough im considering flash arrays for homelab.
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