Statisticians already have something they define as lucky, and it correlates with future performance to the mean: winning close games.
They now also have a statistic for quarterbacks regarding “pickable passes”. There are a few different versions of the stat. But it measures the possibility of an interception on a pass, or whether a pass should have resulted in an interception. Then they look at actual picks per attempt versus expected picks per attempt. And that tells you who is getting lucky as a quarterback. I was just reading up on this stat a few days ago and was surprised to learn Josh Allen is getting really unlucky this year.
Statisticians already have something they define as lucky, and it correlates with future performance to the mean: winning close games.
They now also have a statistic for quarterbacks regarding “pickable passes”. There are a few different versions of the stat. But it measures the possibility of an interception on a pass, or whether a pass should have resulted in an interception. Then they look at actual picks per attempt versus expected picks per attempt. And that tells you who is getting lucky as a quarterback. I was just reading up on this stat a few days ago and was surprised to learn Josh Allen is getting really unlucky this year.