RealWarrenBuffett

Some traders are betting that the stock market will go into a cataclysmic selloff that could make the Covid crash look like a picnic.

According to Bloomberg, a trader recently placed a $30,000 bet that the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX—known as Wall Street’s “fear index”—will shatter new highs.

The VIX typically trades on a scale of 10-80, with 20 representing the historic average. Anything above 20 implies that the S&P 500 will experience unusually high volatility—which is a precursor to a selloff.

This trader expects the VIX to clock in at 180 by Feb. 14; that’s a 1,100% increase from current levels.

VIX has never traded above 100, and it hasn’t even been above 35 (extreme volatility) this year.

While it’s easy to dismiss this trade as ludicrous—after all, investors make crazy trades all the time—it’s not an isolated bet.

As Bloomberg reports, traders have opened more than 20,000 contracts for VIX December options with the same target price. Just last week, 5,000 of those contracts traded hands.

Clearly, some corners of the financial market are taking this bet seriously—or using it as part of a bigger strategy.

The wildfires in Hawaii this summer, Colorado in 2021, and Oregon in 2020 are bringing home to even die-hard climate change deniers the investment consequences of global warming.

The utilities serving the areas in each case are being sued for not shutting down their power grids during heat waves, contributing to some of the worst blazes in U.S. history.

PacifiCorp alone potentially faces $1 billion in class-action fines for the Oregon fires. Hawaiian Electric Industries’ shares plunged 40% during the fires in Maui.

But there is a sector that’s potentially on the hook for many times the size of those losses. And it’s not on anyone’s sell list—yet.

Banks.