Now it is over, barring force majeur.
But this stage proved exactly why it was ridiculous to declare it over yesterday. 1:40 was not a remotely unbreachable gap.
Absolutely, it is both ridiculous to declare the race over after yesterday, but equally Jonas is strong favourite.
If he can keep that form through today then he will win, probably with a bigger gap. But that is a sizable 'if'.
Powless stands no chance. He won't even keep up with the break over the climbs. It is between Ciccone and whoever is first over Col de la Loze.
Hot take: Fred Wright top-10. He's been pretty anonymous so far, but was on form at the British nationals so I think he's got a good effort in the legs. Bilbao top-10 too.
The underappreciated Teams competition is unusually competitive. The time gap between the top 4 teams at this stage in the race over the last 10 races is as follows:
2014 - 47:44
2015 - 36:07
2016 - 38:59
2017 - 70:50
2018 - 47:43
2019 - 36:22
2020 - 37:43
2021 - 32:02
2022 - 64:39
2023 - 10:22
Jumbo-Visma, Ineos, UAE and Bahrain are in a battle for the ages. And no-one cares.
doesn’t look able to crack
It generally only takes one day though. I'm still mostly expecting one to crack the other and take a minute or more on one of the later stages.
If that doesn't happen then every second counts. But I don't think that is plan A.
I predict a big breakaway to get away, probably with some climbers who are 10-20 on GC. They’ll get 8 minutes before Col de la Ramaz. The KOM battle will be unrecognisable.
The GC battle will spark up, and the last survivor of the break will be narrowly caught near the top of the Joux Plane but not near enough to catch back on and deny Pogacar the win.
Pidcock will chase like a madman down the final descent, but was already a minute down over the top so it won’t be enough.
Thank you. I'm here all week.
Not sure I agree that Pogacar needs time here, though I can very well imagine him taking some. I don't think the race will come down to ~4 seconds so I think the bonuses are a bit irrelevant.
I'm expecting Tadej and Jonas to take 1st and 2nd, but I don't think Jumbo Visma will chase a break today so there could easily be a surprise winner.
Good stage for Pinot and Martin to get themselves well positioned for the GC top-10.
Perfectly timed attack from Izagirre - never looked like being caught.
MvdP is still in the race isn't he? I've seen reports that he is a bit ill, but nothing about anything else.
It was good though.