Futurology

Article with overview.

OpenAI & Anthropic have both made calls for Chinese AI models to be banned in the US on national security grounds. While it is true countries have reason to distrust other countries' tech, I doubt this is the real reason they are upset.

Their big problem is that Open-Source AI annihilates their chances of succeeding as businesses. Silicon Valley's model of VC funding is to bet on many small start-ups, hoping one becomes a 'unicorn' - a multi-billion dollar company (like Google, Meta, etc) able to dominate an industry and rake in hundreds of billions of dollars.

Even if they succeed in banning Chinese Open-Source - does this mean they'll become unicorns? I doubt it. The Chinese Open-Source AI models are superior to theirs. Most of the rest of the world will use them, and the real AI innovation will happen in the rest of the world. Meanwhile Americans will make do with the second-best AI, that can only survive when it gets the best banned.

China has long favored this strategy. It realises how vulnerable its fossil fuel supply is to US naval blockade should it decide to invade Taiwan. Now it seems you don't have to invade anyone for the 'blockade' of tariffs. Hence, this report argues that more nations will follow China's strategy.

Although I'm sure it will have an effect, I'd guess the biggest drivers are still the cheapness of renewables and countries' net zero goals. In particular home solar/microgrids and cheap Chinese vehicles which I imagine will blanket every corner of the world in the 2030s.

Download Report - PDF 27 pages

The US export controls aimed at limiting Chinese AI development are struggling. China's latest AI reasoning models perform well on older, domestically produced GPU chips, with scale being more critical than chip advancement. China is also progressing toward parity in advanced chip production.

These controls have driven Chinese innovation, leading to models like Deepseek, now considered among the world's best. A significant shift is China's embrace of open-source AI models, expanding its talent pool and offering a strategic edge. In contrast, US efforts rely heavily on private investment, betting on future tech "unicorns" to generate massive profits.

In early 2025 another profound global shift favors Open-Source over US tech. As the US disengages from NATO to side with Russia, Europeans are left scrambling to replace reliance on US technology. They, and much of the rest of the world, are now much less likely to adopt new US technology, as it will be seen as adversarial and a security threat.

A couple of years ago the story of Open-Source AI was just a curiosity to be remarked on, perhaps it is about to take the main stage.