NFL

Just one of those questions that was eating at me as I’m trying to fall asleep. We’ve got teams that we love to hate maybe for both reasons or that the team is likable but the fans aren’t.

The Chargers kind of feel like that team if you ask me. Maybe the Cardinals too.

https://twitter.com/JomboyMedia/status/1727162426335097184

https://twitter.com/JomboyMedia/status/1727162426335097184

Ass beatings are the universal language

Ass beatings are the universal language

The third quarter is right around his season rating of 93.8. The previous cool-off continues, but it’s still respectable.

The fourth quarter goes to the hell in a hand basket though. What is happening?

Source

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https://preview.redd.it/h3jdp82qys1c1.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a018ed99a2bf55cba74524209eafb9f1f89dce9

The most efficient rushing team in the league, the Baltimore Ravens, still only averages -0.03 EPA per rush play. Averaging across the whole league, the average rushing play is -0.09 EPA and the average dropback play is 0.06 EPA.

Taken at face value, teams should abandon the run and just pass. This of course would be too simplistic as one could argue that the threat of a run helps unlocking the passing game and improves the EPA.

However, another way to look at this is perhaps EPA is just a flawed metric and is either too simplistic or is missing a key nuance in its modelling. Perhaps there's a flat EPA adjustment we need to apply to all plays that would make rushing EPAs positive? Perhaps too much weight is given to the explosive pass? Perhaps we need to adjust the era data from when teams rarely played two high safeties to counter today's passing league?

Nevertheless, I wonder if more and more OCs in the league are using EPA and other advanced analytics and coming to the conclusion you might when looking at this data that passing is far superior to running and ending up with too many teams trying to pass it on too many downs, abandoning the run and putting too much pressure on their average QB?

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Looking at the rest of the current top teams in the NFL and their records against teams that currently hold a winning record:

• Eagles (9-1) are 4-0

• Ravens (8-3) are 4-2

• Chiefs (7-3) are 3-2

• 49ers (7-3) are 3-2

• Jaguars (7-3) are 1-3

• Cowboys (7-3) are 0-2

• Dolphins (7-3) are 0-3

Part of the Lions's low record against winning teams is due to a weaker NFC North this season (although Vikings currently hold a winning record and Lions have yet to play them). But it still stands that the Lions have had a relatively weaker schedule this year, and have not defeated a team with a current winning record since Week 1.

This stands to change with upcoming games against the Vikings (6-5) and Cowboys (7-3), as well as possibly the Broncos and Saints (5-5) depending on how their records turn out.

I'll start. A turnover should be a point for the defense. Your team is winning by one point, and they turn the ball over? Now the game is tied.

Here's one that bugs the hell out of me. Get rid of the taunting penalty!

I'll start. A turnover should be a point for the defense. Your team is winning by one point, and they turn the ball over? Now the game is tied.

Here's one that bugs the hell out of me. Get rid of the taunting penalty!

Source: https://stathead.com/tiny/oeQbG

To paint a full picture, the Chiefs are also tied for 3rd in the NFL in 1st-half touchdowns scored this season:

Source: https://stathead.com/tiny/BZfmA

https://twitter.com/JL_Chapman/status/1726982892944003129