_HGCenty

joined 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Mike Florio would also like you to get off his lawn.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

The context that made me consider and ask this is the Seahawks this season seem to have abandoned their old philosophy of establishing the run and even when we're ahead and the passing game isn't quite working, we continue to call a dropback on almost every play including 3rd and short.

I am starting to wonder if our OC, Shane Waldron, is too wedded to analytics.

 

https://preview.redd.it/h3jdp82qys1c1.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a018ed99a2bf55cba74524209eafb9f1f89dce9

The most efficient rushing team in the league, the Baltimore Ravens, still only averages -0.03 EPA per rush play. Averaging across the whole league, the average rushing play is -0.09 EPA and the average dropback play is 0.06 EPA.

Taken at face value, teams should abandon the run and just pass. This of course would be too simplistic as one could argue that the threat of a run helps unlocking the passing game and improves the EPA.

However, another way to look at this is perhaps EPA is just a flawed metric and is either too simplistic or is missing a key nuance in its modelling. Perhaps there's a flat EPA adjustment we need to apply to all plays that would make rushing EPAs positive? Perhaps too much weight is given to the explosive pass? Perhaps we need to adjust the era data from when teams rarely played two high safeties to counter today's passing league?

Nevertheless, I wonder if more and more OCs in the league are using EPA and other advanced analytics and coming to the conclusion you might when looking at this data that passing is far superior to running and ending up with too many teams trying to pass it on too many downs, abandoning the run and putting too much pressure on their average QB?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

If the Seahawks had won all their games, they'd be 10-0.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I only want Belichick to the Cowboys if there's an entire season of Hard Knocks following that relationship.

🍿

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Sometimes I start wondering what would change if the Jets got 5 downs instead of 4 to get the first down.

Probably just more interceptions if I'm honest.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Time to rename the franchise the New Jersey Football Giants.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

The threat to journalism especially sports journalism isn't people fabricating halftime sideline reports but AI writing bad articles and a good majority of people unable to tell the difference.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Do you adjust for home field advantage?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

It's what happens when the writers strike ends and you get the original script writers back instead of replacements.

/s

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Lots of answers here already but given you're European like me, let me explain why you cannot compare NFL coaching to ⚽ coaching.

  1. NFL players are way more specialised than soccer. The only position in soccer that is truly specialised compared to other positions is the goalkeeper. Otherwise the principles and coaching need for the other 10 outfield positions have huge amounts of overlap (formations, set pieces, passing drills etc). Apart from the goalkeepers, everyone has to practice corners, free kicks, dribbling, passing, aerial ball control etc. Maybe only half your team needs to practice shooting at goal but generally everyone needs to practice penalties. Therefore if you are a star midfielder, outside of the goalkeeper, you probably know already what everyone else on your team needs to do well. Compare that to the NFL, where there are three distinct units and within that incredibly specialised roles. QBs don't need to practice catching, receivers don't need to throw the ball and offensive tackles rarely ever even touch the ball. The coaching day for a linebacker is completely different to a quarterback, running back or kicker and the head coach has to manage assistants for all of these.

  2. There are only 32 professional franchises and after that it's college football where there is completely different mindset in terms of drafting and developing your players. Competition for these roles is tough. In football, every European country has multiple divisions in a league structure and the second division teams are functionally the same so the transition between say League One or the Championship to the Premier League is much less than college to NFL. This means instead of fighting for 32 opportunities, you have hundreds of teams you can go manage.

  3. Outside of maybe set pieces, soccer is way less scripted and designed on a whiteboard with scripted plays and schemes. Play is much fluid and instinctive where you trust your players to move around the pitch, find the passes and generally play more reactively. This is probably similar to playing defense in the NFL but on offense, the playcalling side is a completely different beast where you have to design plays ahead of time which again is not a skill you would get from playing the game as a star

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I think just quote both numbers and don't try and combine them and since there is a lot of cuteness that can happen if you do. With 3rd down conversions, people know it's about how the offense is performing and it's an offense stat.

But 4th down conversions can be about special teams when the conversion is a result of you not going for it but the opposition being penalised (e.g. roughing the punter, false start on a 4th and 4 etc.)

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I'm getting Ivan Drago vibes: "If he dies, he dies"

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