this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2025
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Pretty typical that the only ones to suffer any lasting harm will be the longs and shorts who weren't first to act.
Yeah. I think long term, many advancements in Ai will still need Nvidia chips and it will be better to have more of them still.
I mean, stock price rarely correlates with actual need and more with just hype. If you expect many people to buy a given stock, it makes sense for you to buy before them. If you expect many people to sell a given stock, it makes sense for you to sell before them. The actual need kind of just provides a baseline, i.e. even if the hype dies off completely, it'll still make some profit and pay out some fraction from that to anyone who's willing to park their money there.
As to genuine AI needing better GPUs, I'll believe it when Jeff Hawkins says it's so.
Why is that?
I've read a couple of his books, and he's been developing a theory of human intelligence with the express goal of creating true AGI. His Thousand Brains book espouses a theory I find just about credible and, perhaps eventually, actionable.
It's all to do with cortical columns working in parallel on a pseudo-voting type of system. If at some point he says "we know how to make AGI now, but we're going to need really good GPUs", I will find that credible based on having read his work.
Yeah. I dont think what we have now is general intelligence. It's just word prediction models. But they still manage to give an impression of intelligence. I think there will be some big change at some time where Ai models will use some different technology and probably give something closer to actual thinking.
Oh, nobody thinks what we have now is AGI. Not even the AI thinks it's AGI. It's just a words firehose being hyped to hell and gone because billionaires are so excited to fire their employees that they're jumping the gun.
Or said billionaires are trying to squeeze more money out of the AI bubble