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The conservative CDU/CSU will lead the government.
Before the election they have ruled out coalitions with the far right AfD, the Greens and the Left party.
Which leaves only one option: A coalition with the social democrats SPD.
If the social democrats were smart, they could now drive up the price of the coalition and demand lots of concessions from the conservatives, since they painted themselves into a corner.
But the social democrats aren't tactically smart that way. They'll cave and become a good little junior partner, afraid that any pressure would push the conservatives to ally with the far right AfD, and they'll be fed some scraps for electing CDU's Merz as chancellor.
Very little progress will happen in the next 4 years, our infrastructure will continue to crumble, and the reform of our traffic sector will grind to a halt. But at least both parties aren't fans of Putin or enemies of the EU, and the SPD will likely manage to prevent any conservative policy roll-back. My guess is defense spending will increase and nothing will be done about the cost of living.
Then in the next election, it will need a coalition of 3-4 parties to still keep the Nazis out of government.
Can the CDU break the promise of not collaborating with the AfD? Or is there a guarantee? If those two form a coalition it would dominate all other possible coalitions. It feels like there's a lot of overlap between the two.
There is never a guarantee, elected representatives can vote however they want.
But if they break that promise, there will be huge demonstrations and strikes everywhere.
The CDU will lose most of their core voters, and a large number of their members.
The much more likely outcome would be that Merz loses all internal support as soon as he announces it.
It's possible, but not likley in this election-cycle. If they have to choose between a coalition with one or more left parties and the AFD, it is possible that they will indeed choose the right wing option, since they are, as you point out correctly, much closer in their ideology.
They can do whatever they like. Politicians and political parties are in no way bound to their promises, which they like to show off once more every election cycle.
I don't see that happening on the federal level, yet. On the state level, it seems very likely to me that we will have a CDU-AfD coalition in one of the former GDR states some time in the next years. Depending how things develop, I'm also afraid of it happening on the federal level in the next elections. But for now, there's still too many CDU MPs as well as voters (e. g. my parents) who would be diametrically opposed to a coalition with the AfD. While I don't trust Merz at all, I think he knows that it would lead to massive trouble from within his own party, something he cannot risk at this point in time.