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Why Putin is finally negotiating (www.politico.eu)

submitted 4 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

33 comments fedilink hide all child comments

"If fiscal expenses remain at their January levels throughout the remainder of the year, the NWF reserves could vanish in just three months. And even if they don’t — as is more likely — 2025 is probably the last year Moscow will be able to fully cover its fiscal deficit by tapping into those savings."

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I've heard a lot about Russia not being able to make good ball bearings, so I think you are right it will impact transportation especially by train.
Regarding food, Russia is also likely to have way below average harvest in 2025 for several crops. Because they can't import quality seeds, and have to make do with Russian seeds that have lower yields.
Note that this import is not restricted by embargo, because it's for basic food items which have exceptions. It's simply Russia themselves that prevent imports, probably because of lack of currency for imports.

So for sure prices of basic food items will go up in 2025, also more than inflation itself would require. And this is very likely to cause huge problems for especially pensioners and other low income households.
I don't think we will see widespread starvation, but shortages rising prices and possibly food stamps are very likely.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 days ago

probably because of lack of currency for imports

That makes sense. Russia is saving its money to pay smugglers to smuggle in weapons components.