this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2025
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I think most ML experts (that weren't being paid out the wazoo for saying otherwise) have been saying we're on the tail end of the LLM technology sigma curve. (Basically treating an LLM as a stochastic index, the actual measure of training algorithm quality is query accuracy per training datum)
Even with deepseek's methodology, you see smaller and smaller returns on training input.
At this point, it is useful for doing some specific things so the way to make it great is making it cheap and accessible. Being able to run it locally would be way more useful.