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Zelensky ordered to leave White House without signing minerals deal after Oval Office clash with Trump
(kyivindependent.com)
this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2025
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Unlike support for Trump in the US, support for genocidal imperialism among russians is at minimum a strong majority if not an overwhelming majority. The majority holds across all demographic segments; age, education, rural vs. urban, income.
At the point is usually when you hear arguments such as "all russians are afraid, they are all secret liberals" or "how can we truly know what russians think".
It turns out that people that people who work in this areas do have methods of not only accounting for preference falsification, but even estimating it's scope.
And even adjusting for preference falsification you still have at least a strong majority openly supporting imperialism and genocide.
Is this situation the same for support for Trump in the US?
I haven't gone too in-depth into this, but a quick search show a 50/50 split in favorable vs unfavorable opinions of Trump. Last time I took a look, serious pollsters who found interesting ways of measuring support for Putin in Russia without endangering those participating found generally a 33/33/33 split between those in favor of Putin, those against, and those with no opinion (part of the intentional depoliticizing of the Russian population).
So, I guess it's vaguely accurate to say there's more people that dislike Trump in the US compared to Putin in Russia, but also more people that like him.
50% favourable (not net) is still a lot, but nowhere near as bad as in Russia were support for the annexation of Crimea was at 85% between 2014 and 2021 with no real preference falsification.
Do you a source on the 33/33/33 split in Russia? Genuinely curious, I try to read as much as I can on this and keep an up to date DB of relevant research pieces.
I of course disagree that just 33% of russians support putin. Multiple research works show much much higher numbers. But to be honest, I just want to check out the research.
It's really hard to find on Google considering this was an academic paper from 3 years ago, but generally the big problem with polling in Russia is that for obvious reasons Russians are scared to give their honest opinions. If asked over the phone what they think of Putin, every politically neutral Russian and even some anti-Putin activists will say they approve.
From memory, the methodology they used was to give 3 propositions unrelated to Putin (less contentious policy decisions) and the respondents were only asked how many of the statements they agreed with, not which ones. Then they did the same thing again with 4 propositions (4th one being if they approve of Putin), then a 3rd time (this time with the 4th one being if they disapprove). With those 3 datasets, you can then essentially subtract the 3 unrelated propositions from the 4th one they actually cared about, all without requiring the respondent to actually state their opinion on the phone.
Yes, list experiments. There are several research papers with such methodology that I am aware of that cover russian support for the invasion of Ukraine. One shows 65% support for the full scale invasion (even after preference falsification adjustments). Another one regarding annexation of Crimea shows 80% support with no preference falsification (i.e. full alignment with other polling methods); an overwhelming majority of russian really do support the annexation of Crimes; the first stage of their invasion of Ukraine.
And even logically, the mere existence of preference falsification doesn't inherently means that it is impossible for a strong majority of russians to be supporters of genocidal imperialism. The preference falsification would be have to be significant (which needs to be shown empirically).
The 33% support figure conflicts all other research on this topic (using any methodology), that's why I was asking.
No worries if you don't don't a have link. I might do some random searches using 33% as a base. Cheers!
I'd be very interested in more recent stuff. As I mentioned, the last time I seriously looked at this was 3 years ago, in the opening stages of the war. It's very possible that new methods have been developed, people's opinions have changed over time, or both. If you could possibly throw me some links to more recent papers, I'd greatly appreciate it!
Haven't really seen too many new list experiment polling (which is really too bad).
There is a good report from Dec 2024 on the topic:
The reluctant consensus: War and Russia’s public opinion
While the authors use more neutral language (while still being critical), I think it's reasons to state that this another piece of research that confirms the position that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialists.