this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2025
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They still don't need to take over all of Ukraine though. They will break the AFU fighting capacity, and then leave western Ukraine to become Europe's problem I imagine. At that point, Europe is gonna be stuck with a non viable state that will require billions to prop up, and if they don't do that then they're gonna have a huge refugee crisis on their hands. Millions of Ukrainian nationalists, who will feel betrayed, flooding in is really the worst possible case scenario for Europe.
Russia won't stop until their objectives are met. They want a demilitarized Ukraine and no National Sectors (fascists) in government or influencing the government. So if they have to hold ground in Western Ukraine until accomplished, they will do so. Unless of course this is covered in the potential peace agreement, then Russia will most likely be content with going as far as the Dnieper River.
They have to physically hold western Ukraine though. Once the AFU breaks, Russia will dictate terms to the west and whatever remains of Ukraine. Just look at how things unfolded over the past three years with the frontline remaining relatively static until recently. Attrition does not require making territorial gains.