Then Russia will probably occupy the entire country. Ukraine won't have anything to fight with, as NATO can't supply them with the quantity needed, and even then, they'd lose to a much larger, motivated army. They simply can't compete militarily.
this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2025
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Seems unlikely given that western Ukraine has a lot of anti-Russian sentiment. The most plausible scenario is that Russia will absorb parts of Ukraine that are pro Russian or neutral, and the rest will be gobbled up by Poland and Romania.
I bet a small portion of the country will remain Ukrainian, but only because no one else is going to willingly add Chernobyl to their country.
It's basically a wildlife preserve at this point https://theconversation.com/chernobyl-has-become-a-refuge-for-wildlife-33-years-after-the-nuclear-accident-116303
Well, that the desired result, but if peace negotiations fail, and the EU keeps arming the Nazi's in Kiev, the Russians will have no choice but to devastate the entire country including Kiev, and any other metro area and leave nothing left. Let's hope it doesn't come to this, but like the US president said, Kiev has no winning cards to play here. But the clowns in Kiev hate Russia so much with EU support that I've got my fingers crossed.
They still don't need to take over all of Ukraine though. They will break the AFU fighting capacity, and then leave western Ukraine to become Europe's problem I imagine. At that point, Europe is gonna be stuck with a non viable state that will require billions to prop up, and if they don't do that then they're gonna have a huge refugee crisis on their hands. Millions of Ukrainian nationalists, who will feel betrayed, flooding in is really the worst possible case scenario for Europe.
Russia won't stop until their objectives are met. They want a demilitarized Ukraine and no National Sectors (fascists) in government or influencing the government. So if they have to hold ground in Western Ukraine until accomplished, they will do so. Unless of course this is covered in the potential peace agreement, then Russia will most likely be content with going as far as the Dnieper River.
They have to physically hold western Ukraine though. Once the AFU breaks, Russia will dictate terms to the west and whatever remains of Ukraine. Just look at how things unfolded over the past three years with the frontline remaining relatively static until recently. Attrition does not require making territorial gains.