this post was submitted on 05 Jun 2023
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i've generally been a fan of Climate Action Tracker's work in this regard; at least for the people in my circle, i think it very helpfully illustrates the range of most likely outcomes. right now its estimate is anywhere from 2.2C to 3.4C of warming, assuming we stick to established policies, with a best guess of 2.7C. (that sounds about right to me, tbh, absent a feedback loop) it also illustrates the impact of committing to better policies
Thanks, I wasn't aware of that source - though this seems - incomplete (I am aware this is probably outside of their control)
EDIT: I'm being intentionally pessimistic because I assume a lot of industrial growth - still powered by coal (at least one China's worth) and I basically expect every target to be not met (which so far has mostly been the case).