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Toyota’s chairman doubles down on his electric car skepticism, forecasting that EV adoption will peak at just 30% (fortune.com)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Akio Toyoda, Toyota Motor’s chairman, has never been a huge fan of battery electric vehicles. Last October, as global sales of EVs started to slow down amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Toyoda crowed that people are “finally seeing reality” on EVs. Now, the auto executive is doubling down on his bearish forecast, boldly predicting that just three in 10 cars on the road will be powered by a battery.

…

“The enemy is CO2,” Toyoda said, proposing a “multi-pathway approach” that doesn’t rely on any one type of vehicle. “Customers, not regulations or politics” should make the decision on what path to rely on, he said.

The auto executive estimated that around a billion people still live in areas without electricity, which limits the appeal of a battery electric vehicle. Toyoda estimated that fully electric cars will only capture 30% of the market, with the remainder taken up by hybrids or vehicles that use hydrogen technology.

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[–] [email protected] 86 points 1 year ago (1 children)

At this point the dude is just grasping for anything that will to justify the stupid business decisions that he’s made. 30% is a shit load, and something a sane business person would be excited about trying to capture.

Before nepotism appointed him to CEO, the company launched the Prius. That thing was exciting and innovative when it came out.

Under his leadership the Prius brand became a synonym for boredom, he relinquished Toyota’s electric powertrain lead to other manufacturers, and the brand produced a lot of uninspired vehicles in general.

This guy was at the helm during the years of Toyota’s decline. Forgive me if I don’t pay any attention to him.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

It's his hand to play. If he's wrong, he's wrong and will find out.

[–] [email protected] 47 points 1 year ago (1 children)

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[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 year ago (2 children)

What data is being used to make this statement?

[–] [email protected] 62 points 1 year ago

I guess the data that says they spent too much money on hydrogen tech that is now unlikely to pay off.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Even if there’s no data to back it, isn’t 30% a lot?? I know plenty of markets where if you tell one of the leaders they could capture 30% of they’d be more than happy to spend billions in R&D. So just at face value the man is smoking some copium hard.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago

There’s no way one company would be able to capture the entirety of that market, at best it would be like 20 brands splitting the 30% and that’s not an appealing prospect.

Really though the Toyota clan is saying this because they spent a shit ton on hydrogen vehicle tech that they want to catch on rather than electric battery tech that they neglected

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills - wasn't Toyota all up in the news recently about its new battery technology that was going to revolutionize EVs? Why yes, yes it was.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I think they're just putting out shit trying to create FUD so people are less likely to buy EVs.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Bingo, they bet on the wrong horse, and now they try to use their market share to FUD EV's

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

He's clearly aware of the "magic gas" cheat that allows infinite additional fossil fuel to be harvested from the map.

Edit: Or he's confident that Hydrogen will pick up the slack.

Hindenburg in flames

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The Hindenburg was coated in thermite.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Yeah. I don't seriously mean to put down Hydrogen as an important fuel source.

Though I do think it'll have a slow adoption curve because of cultural concerns for safety, and investors and innovators will need to plan to invest for the long term.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

He's still pissed their early collaboration with Tesla yielded nothing but a new competitor.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-20-years-on-EV-leader-s-rise-sparked-by-Toyota-partnership

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I mean okay...I guess I'm wondering what he thinks that some how the billion people who live in areas without electricity is going to afford a new hybrid or even more expensive hydrogen vehicle that has even less infrastructure than EV's.

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I haven't bought an EV (or any other car) because I'm waiting for a car manufacturer to make the car I want in a plug in variant of some kind (also less telematics). Who doesn't want to be their own gas station--self sufficient with Solar, anyone?

Get your shit together, car industry. Especially you Toyota.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

You’re gonna be waiting a looong time.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago

Booooooooooooooooooooo

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

But don't worry, they're "too big to fail". They'll get bailout after bailout until they can stand on their own again after a transition made far more painful by their foot dragging. So in the end it's the Japanese tax payer that will foot the bill.

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