It will carve itself a healthy but small niche user-base, similar to Mastodon.
this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2021
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Asklemmy
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Yeah I come here often just before going to reddit and the amount of time I spend here instead of there steadily increases because I get used more to this and also there is more content :)
not bad
Its gonna die just like mastodon did, haven't you read the fastcompany and wired articles?
No, I haven't. Do you have links? Mastodon seems to grow just well from what I see. I know users with five-digit follower numbers.
they were being sarcastic (not about the articles but the "it's gonna die" part). sidenote - if you look up "mastodon dying" most of the articles are about actual mastodons
til mastodon is also a species of animals, and not just the website π€
yeah mastodons are dope. too bad they went extinct 10,000+ years ago. it would have been really cool to see them and mammoths
WHAT, MASTODONS ARE AN EXTINCT BREED OF DOGS?
@[email protected] is right I was kidding, the mainstream tech world doesnt understand the fediverse at all and continously has said its going to die and its just funny at this point
It will grow steadily and will perhaps reach Mastodon levels of popularity. It will however take time so one needs to be patient.
Regarding everyone here talking about masto: most masto users don't even know lemmy exists, but it feels like there is some demand. I think lemmy could get a boost by being a bit more vocal on masto.
Wait im a masto user and i joined lemmy because of that.
And more so if there was federation between Lemmy and the Fediverse, as that is how you get followed and found.
I am happy with the size of lemmy now. If lemmy gets too big we will have corporate shils, sock puppets and bots trying to manipulate the conversation.
Having said that, I think there is a good chance Lemmy will take a decent chunk of reddit users in the near future.
My reasoning:
- I think lemmy's interface is intuitive for new users (paritularly new users from reddit).
- Open Source/Federation/Non coroporate patforms are something many reddit users are interested in and value.
- Reddit is pushing some users away through increased advertising, subreddit bans, trying to get people to use the new app/interface.
- There have been mass-migrations from reddit to other sites before (voat). If there is another mass-migration it will likely to be to a lemmy instance as there will allready be some content available and I as far as I know it is easy to set up an instance.
- r/privacy has a raddle.me community as a backup forum in case it gets banned. If subbreddits start having lemmy as a backup that could draw new users.
Things shift the larger the pool of users get regardless. One plus is that in its current state I am actually posting whereas on reddit I never did even when digg.com was the behemoth and reddit was the small guy. As things grow more general/meme content comes into play i'd probably stop but that is fine.
One possible outcome I find exciting is that due to its federated nature lemmy.ml could be come a sort of incubator for smaller communities e.g. everybody piles onto the main server by default, but then the admins can spin off groups of likeminded communities into their own instance.
yeah thats a good point, I hope that happens
We should find a way to force Reddit content into the federation of content, but I'm not sure that's possible.
I guess you could fork Slide for example and let it show both. But there is so much more Reddit users and content that you would probably end up with nearly 100% Reddit.
A gateway to Reddit may be useful but:
- it will bring undesired content/people from there
- the day it will start to be useful is the day Reddit will shut it down
You can take a look at Bridgy as they already have a Reddit gateway.
Reddit is starting to get super shady, (forcing you to use personalized-ads)
As long as Lemmy doesnβt start getting shady Iβll continue to use it
Reddit is exactly where it wants to be, which is the outcome of the drive of the original creators to where they could build it up to a point where it had enough value to sell (in my mind). Owners that then expect a return etc.
Maybe half of Masto (not half of masto's actual users, but half of their user numbers) in two years is my prediction. It is (and likely never will be) near as viable as Reddit, but I think it can still secure a larch enough niche for itself.
I'm hoping we can make up in quality users, over quantity of users.
I would love to see lemmy.ml(and other instances) grow. One of the things I actually I personally would really love is having a site layout option that closely mimicks old,reddits.com layout. I suspect this may also help the site grow given the that many long time reddit users really dislike the new design it may give them a solid push to check out lemmy.