this post was submitted on 24 Feb 2025
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[–] [email protected] 43 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (16 children)

Which is probably why they're trying to bid up Ukraine with the US using their own minerals.

Edit: Although some are suggesting this article is just propaganda, Russia's main challenge is that their economy is on the brink of failing and domestic support becomes a question if that happens. From a skim that appears to be the main thrust of it.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Their economy has allegedly been on the brink of failing for the past three years according to US state department talking points. Surely any day now the Ruskies will surrender…

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 21 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago) (4 children)

The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.

The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end the war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.

I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.

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[–] [email protected] 67 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

I've found that Colonel Maruks Reisner provides some of the best information available on the war.

https://youtu.be/IDRjughhXMg

He doesn't update frequently but all his analysis are sober, detailed, and realistic. He states his pro-Western, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian bias clearly.

If I could sum up the general trend of his presentation it's, "The status quo favors Russia. If we don't get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win."

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Second this. I expected just more crazy ukrainian claims but it was actually a very grounded analysis of the situation.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago

He has a lot of videos like that. One of them is him in a room full of cadets. He goes through all the drone innovations that the Russian and Ukrainians have made in the past year and passes around a (disarmed) working €321 drone.

Then he points out that Austria still has the same expensive drone they had years ago and tells the cadets they should be a bit stressed about that.

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[–] [email protected] 49 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I've heard this one before. As much as I'd like to believe it...

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 day ago (1 children)
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[–] [email protected] 61 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

No wonder Krasnov Trump and Nazi Elon Musk are panicking and begging for a deal.

[–] MystikIncarnate 58 points 1 day ago (39 children)

Russia is going to run out of troops.

IDK when, but they're basically feeding their population into a meat grinder trying to take Ukraine.

That's not too say the Ukraine isn't taking losses.... I've just, seen some numbers that indicate that Russia is going to run out of people to send to their deaths before Ukraine will.

Putin needs to give this up before he doesn't have a military anymore.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Ukraine is taking horrendous losses that we should be more concerned about. Stay focussed on Ukraine succeeding, not just Russia failing

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[–] [email protected] 52 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It's not that they will run out of people. They have people, but to keep recruitment levels so high and equipment manufacturing so high they are overcharging their economy. Right now in Russia there are three types of jobs if you want to make money afaik, work in the military complex (arms manufacturing), in the gas extraction industry or directly in the military.

It's Dutch disease x100, if the state at some point stops being able to fund the war machine, their economy collapses.

[–] [email protected] 41 points 1 day ago (9 children)

To add to this, Putin can recruit from the poorest regions for a while, but at some point he needs to get men from the larger cities. The last thing he wants is protests from Moskou etc. The average person from Moskou hadn't had that much negative effects from the war yet. But if you, your son or father is forced to the battlefield it's a different story.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Russians are going to be less willing to die to invade Ukraine than Ukrainians are to defend their homes.

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