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Total collapse of vital Atlantic currents unlikely this century, study finds
(www.theguardian.com)
This theory may be wrong. Keeps getting brought up though, as if its one of the major risks of global warming.
Tropical Northern Atlantic ocean being a good 2C warmer than just 10 years ago, may well be the result of a weaker current flow north. But 2C warmer flowing slowly, is still warming TF out of northern Atlantic. Even without taking the current path, +2C temperature water is going to make the water just north of it +2C too.
Weaker AMOC theory is based on increased Arctic melting. So far, Arctic melting per season has been stable even as extreme record low sea ice volume occurs in last 2 summers. The melting is stable because there is less winter freezing.
The trend over last 2 years is record warm European winters because of record warm Northern Atlantic and Mediteranean. This theory developed during period of Atlantic cold spot 2016-2021, but it is gone this year.
The mistake in the theory, IMO, is measuring current flow rate instead of heat flow rate, including natural heat flow independent of current.