I express my sympathy and condolences to the Canadian and Filipino people and to the victims and families touched by the mass killing at the Filipino festival in Vancouver on Saturday evening. The incident is a tragedy on many levels. Your American friends stand with you in your sorrow and grief.
Sit-in on the Capitol Steps
In another sign that some congressional leaders “get it,” Senator Cory Booker and minority leader Hakeem Jeffries led a “sit-in” on the Capitol steps beginning on Sunday morning. The sit-in began one day before Congress returns to consider the punitive continuing resolution and budget framework proposed by Republicans. See The Guardian, Hakeem Jeffries and Cory Booker livestream sit-in against GOP funding plan
Upon its Monday return from recess, Congress will undertake the task of converting a Republican budget framework into an actual spending bill. If the Republicans manage to stick to their framework, programs such as Medicaid and healthcare will be cut by as much as $880 billion, while tax cuts for the rich and corporations could increase the deficit by $5.7 trillion.” See Bipartisan Policy Center, What’s in the FY2025 Senate Budget Resolution | Bipartisan Policy Center.
Most Americans have no idea that the proposed Republican budget would gut Medicaid while codifying permanent tax cuts for the most affluent Americans and corporations.
The effort by Senator Booker received scant coverage over the weekend. No matter! The protest is a start—and will continue. The fact that it occurred at all is big news.
Democrats in Congress must engage in creative protest activity to take control of the media narrative. We cannot predict which small protest will spark the flames of mass resistance, so the efforts of Senator Booker, Rep. Jeffries, and others deserve our attention, respect, and amplification. Tell a friend!
The resistance continues to organize and strengthen
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that ten major universities have formed a strategic coalition to plan resistance to attacks by the Trump administration. See Elite Universities Form Private Collective to Resist Trump Administration. (Accessible to all.)
Per the WSJ,
The group comprises figures at the highest levels, including individual trustees and presidents. Maintaining close contact, they have discussed red lines they won’t cross in negotiations and have gamed out how to respond to different demands presented by the Trump administration, which has frozen or canceled billions in research funding at schools it says haven’t effectively combated antisemitism on their campuses.
The group’s aim is to avoid the fate of some top law firms, where one deal led to others following suit. The universities want to make sure other schools don’t go so far as to strike deals that create a worrisome precedent that others would be under pressure to follow, say the people familiar with the effort.
Speaking of “the fate of some top law firms,” an article in Business Insider provides insight into Susman Godfrey's decision to fight the Trump administration—and the benefits that have accrued to Susman and other firms that refused to capitulate. See Business Insider, Susman Godfrey's Decision to Sue the US Government Took Just Two Hours. (“So far, there is little evidence those four firms have suffered serious consequences for choosing to fight.”)
Per Business Insider, the Justice Department is having difficulty finding lawyers to work on the cases brought by Susman Godfrey, Perkins Coie, WilmerHale, and others. Business Insider notes that the two veteran DOJ attorneys who were leading the defense of Trump's executive orders against law firms have “dropped out” of the cases.
In place of veteran attorneys at the DOJ are two lawyers who seem to be ill-equipped to handle the high-stakes constitutional questions at the heart of the cases. One lawyer is Pam Bondi’s “Chief of Staff,” and the other is a lawyer who joined the DOJ from a Stephen Miller non-profit organization.
The Stephen Miller protégé—Richard Lawson—will be forever famous for impersonating Sergeant Schultz while defending Trump's executive orders, repeatedly answering Judge Beryl Howell’s questions with some version of, “I know nothing! Nothing!” See Bloomberg, Trump Attorney for Big Law Attacks Says Little as Losses Rack Up.
The lesson from resistance by universities and a handful of law firms is that Trump loses in court and backs down when challenged.
The capitulation of Paul Weiss, Skadden Arps, Kirkland & Ellis, Willkie Farr, A&O Shearman, Milbank, Cadwalader, and Latham & Watkins will be remembered as the biggest mistake in the history of those firms—while Perkins Coie, Wilmer Hale, Susman Godfrey, Jenner & Block, Covington & Burling, and Munger Tolles will long be viewed as having acted in the highest traditions of the legal profession.
Ugh. Trump's tariffs appear to be having a major effect on international shipping.
Over the weekend, reports emerged that inbound shipping container traffic into US ports has fallen off a cliff. The Port of Seattle reportedly has no international ships offloading cargo, and ports on the East Coast are experiencing declines in the 40% range. See WSJ*,* China-to-U.S. Cargo Shipments Dwindle as Ship Cancellations Increase. (Accessible to all.)
Per the WSJ,
Dozens of canceled sailings from China were due to reach U.S. seaports in the coming weeks. Freight demand from China to the West Coast of the U.S. could fall 28% next week, while demand at East Coast ports could plunge 42% the following week, according to Alan Murphy, chief executive of Denmark-based data firm Sea-Intelligence.
”The impact is staggering,” he said.
Empty ports this week translate into empty warehouses next month—unless something dramatic happens.
The good news is that Trump claims he is talking to China daily about trade. The bad news is that China says no such talks are taking place. See The Independent, Trump admin keeps claiming trade negotiations are happening every day with China. No one in Beijing or Washington seems to know who is making them.
As noted in Concluding Thoughts, below, consumer confidence is plummeting, and Trump's approval rating in his second term has hit a historic low, exceeding the prior worst performance of any president, Trump during his first term.
There is nothing to celebrate in bad news for the American economy. Millions of Americans will be hurt. But we must remember that Biden left an economy that the foreign financial press called “the envy of the world.” Republicans nonetheless managed to convince Americans that Biden was incompetent because of inflation.
What we are about to see will be significantly worse than the inflation under Biden, and we must be prepared to open the eyes of voters to see that Trump is solely responsible for crashing the American economy. We must convince regretful Republicans and persuadable Independents that voting for Trump and his GOP enablers was a mistake.
We can do that, but it requires us to be knowledgeable about the damage inflicted by DOGE and Trump. Read on!
DOGE’s “cuts” may cost the US more than the alleged savings.
The cuts by DOGE have sparked chaos in government—which increase costs. An independent study indicates that the DOGE cuts have increased costs to the US taxpayers by $135 billion—compared to an alleged $160 billion in savings from DOGE cuts. See CBS News, DOGE's $160 billion in savings have cost $135 billion, analysis finds.
The headline understates the impact of DOGE's increased costs. Per CBS News,
The $135 billion cost to taxpayers doesn't include the expense of defending multiple lawsuits challenging DOGE's actions, nor the impact of estimated lost tax collections due to staff cuts at the IRS.
Other reports have suggested the IRS taxes collected through April 15, 2025, were about half a trillion dollars less than prior years.
While some of that shortfall may be timing differences, it is reasonable to assume that dramatic decreases in IRS staffing will result in lower-than-average collection results. See CNBC, Tax revenue collected by the IRS set to plummet, report says. (“The loss of tax receipts is expected as more individuals and businesses don’t file taxes or attempt to avoid paying balances owed to the IRS. The amount of lost federal revenue could top $500 billion, the paper said.”)
A reader posted a comment on Sunday that suggested we always refer to DOGE as “the DOGE disaster.” I agree. Most Americans understand that DOGE has been a disaster. Reinforcing that concept will make it easier to message Trump's ownership of the poor state of the economy in 2026.
Concluding Thoughts
There is more to discuss, but that is all I can muster on a Sunday evening after a day celebrating my birthday by serving as a human catapult for my three granddaughters in the pool. (“Again, grandpa! Again!”)
As Trump approaches the 100-day mark of his second term, he is historically unpopular. See ABC News, Trump has lowest 100-day approval rating in 80 years. I invite you to read the ABC News poll to see how broadly the electorate disapproves of Trump and his policies.
I frequently remind readers to “Ignore the polls,” mainly because polls can give people false hope and are subject to manipulation by the sponsoring organization. But I believe the polls are helpful at this moment, not because they should provide us with comfort, but rather because they should spur us to even greater resistance and effort in the next 100 days!
The ABC poll says less about Trump than it says about us—both about how we feel about Trump and how effective our resistance efforts have been. The decrease in Trump's approval rating is about as dramatic as it gets. Something unusual is going on.
Much of the drop in Trump’s approval rating is organic and would have happened in all events, but some of the drop is attributable to the sustained, widespread, passionate anti-Trump protests led by a revitalized grassroots movement.
I realize it is a bold claim to say that some of the drop in Trump's favorability is because of the protests and other resistance efforts. However, I note that Elon Musk spent the opening minutes of the Tesla first-quarter earnings call complaining about the protests and protesters.
Musk engaged in full-throated conspiracy claims about the protesters—i.e., that they are being paid and are protesting to ensure that they continue to receive fraudulent benefit payments to which they are not entitled.
Musk’s tirade fooled no one but managed to make a fool out of Musk. He humiliated himself in front of the most sophisticated financial analysts in the world, who know everything worth knowing about Tesla. And they know that Tesla’s problem is Musk.
Here’s my point: Musk told us that the protests are working. They are changing the public’s view of Tesla’s brand by associating it with an out-of-touch white supremacist billionaire. Those anti-Musk views are embedded in Trump's plummeting favorability rating.
So, the ABC poll tells us, “Keep it up! Do not relent! Double down!” The weaker Trump becomes, the more likely that a handful of Republicans will find the courage to vote against him in the upcoming battles over the budget. Time is of the essence if we hope to stop the horrific GOP budget proposal from becoming law.
At the 100-day mark, we have received our first report card. And it is darned good. Let’s keep up the good work!
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
It was cloudy and cold in Los Angeles on Sunday, so no astrophotography was possible today. I received a book of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) photographs for my birthday. As I flipped through the photos, I paused on the HST photo of the Orion Nebula. I pulled out my phone and compared my image of the Orion Nebula—and concluded I had done a pretty good job of capturing the nebula (compared to the HST). So, with more than my usual pride in sharing photos of deep sky objects, see my photo of the Orion Nebula below. Enjoy!
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