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Earth is trapping much more heat than climate models forecast – and the rate has doubled in 20 years (theconversation.com)

submitted 1 day ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/23918980

In the mid-2000s, the energy imbalance was about 0.6 watts per square metre (W/m2) on average. In recent years, the average was about 1.3 W/m2. **This means the rate at which energy is accumulating near the planet’s surface has doubled. **

FAaFO , we're in the find out phase.

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 day ago

The models were deliberately not measuring/predicting ALL the factors they knew were involved. Back in 1998 I asked a Scripps Institute of Oceanography speaker why the models were ignoring the methane/permafrost feedback loop and was told "we decided to focus on other things"... so yeah, inaccurate models give inaccurate predictions. Get used to hearing "it is all happening faster than we expected" from now until we are incinerated.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?

the facts

[–] [email protected] 6 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

On an annual basis, fossil fuel burning causes way more cooling than heating.

nope nope nope nope

[–] [email protected] -1 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago) (1 children)

Exactly. No one wants to read that. It's counter-intuitive, and it goes against the prevailing narrative. But the narrative that the media repeats is based on GWP100 accounting, even though we don't have 100 years to address climate change. As Hansen and colleagues pointed out, people are not well-informed, and that's true of the people deciding climate policy as well. Ignorance and denial of the facts will continue to make the situation ever more dire.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

the cooling is short term. the heating effects will last centuries.

I think you're over invested on this narrative. I have more confidence in NOAA, NASA etc.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

the cooling is short term.

Yes. Exactly. The aerosols have a cooling effect that is fast-acting but short-lasting. Carbon dioxide has a warming effect that is slow-acting but long-lasting. In the long term, the warming effect prevails, but on an annual basis, the cooling effect dominates. We no longer have centuries to address climate change, so considering what the effect of any mitigation strategy will be in the short term is crucial.

[–] ininewcrow 29 points 1 day ago (2 children)

But the economy is doing good and those little arrows are pointing up and numbers are going up instead of down ..... that means it's good.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 18 hours ago

You know we killed the world buuuuuuuuuut for a very short time we made our investors a looooooooot of money!

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

And if it doesn't look good just incite war's all over the world

[–] [email protected] 2 points 22 hours ago

Soooo... We're fucked.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 day ago (1 children)

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

Kind of the opposite, sadly.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Yeah...

We're fucked...

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago

On the bright side, billionaires have never made so much money as they do now.