FWIW, I have also been personally deliberating over whether Israel's actions in Gaza are technically a Genocide as opposed to, say, ethnic cleansing (which it undeniably is, and has been for decades).
However, I can understand why the term is in widespread use at the moment regarding Gaza:
- The sheer scale of civilian deaths.
- Cutting off water, electricity and aid to civilian areas.
- Indiscriminate carpet bombing of civilian areas.
- Wholesale destruction of public infrastructure.
- Genocidal and dehumanizing language being used by Israeli government officials specifically towards the civilian population.
With Genocide, there has to be a discernable intent on wiping out the people themselves, not just their government.
These are valid points, but I still think what sets apart the current situation from Iraq is 1) the scale and 2) the intent.
With regards to #1, bear in mind that those figures for Iraq are calculated over a period of fourteen years as opposed to just six months in Gaza. For the latter, the daily death rate is four times higher. Similarly, the fact that most of Northern Gaza is now an uninhabitable pile of rubble dwarfs even the destruction that occurred in Iraq. With regards to the genocidal language, the comment from Rumsfeld is a far cry from Isaac Herzog saying “It is an entire nation out there that is responsible,” for October 7th or Yoav Gallant saying "We are fighting human animals."
As for #2, the vast majority of Palestinians are have been displaced southwards and are now basically trapped in Rafah with nowhere to go. The equivalent in Irag would have been for US to build a wall around Baghdad and prevented any women and children from leaving while they carried out their bombing campaigns. Also, the steps that Israel have taken to block humanitarian aid from getting to desperate and starving people sets the behavior apart from the US in Iraq. There's also the sense of "collective punishment" in Gaza that wasn't present in Iraq.
Again, I am still somewhat in two minds about use of the word, but I think there are still distinct differences that makes the current situation what the ICJ terms a "plausible genocide".