this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2022
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Taiwan is literally part of China, even US recognizes this officially despite all their posturing. China is not going to hold any referendums on this issue.
Quebec is literally a part of Canada, but that didn't stop them from holding a referendum on leaving. This is a thing civilized countries can do
As opposed to "uncivilized" or "primitive" countries 🤨
As opposed to countries that are unable to separate the desires of the majority from the desires of a few
The opposite of "civilized" is...
If you want me to call China uncivilized, you're projecting. My point is civilized countries can hold referendums.
So Crimea is uncivilized? Why?
How are you comparing two competing settler regimes to China and Taiwan?
Because it illustrates how listening to what the population wants can work out.
In my opinion, it's something for the people of Taiwan to decide. There's a lot of tension around the topic, and that can be blamed on the CIA, the Chinese (mainland) government, or even the Taiwanese government - but at the end of the day it's the people living in Taiwan that will be impacted the most. It makes sense for those affected the most to be able to decide.
You are assuming that people have perfect knowledge of the implications of the decision when Brexit has shown that this is not the case with the general consensus being that it has not gone well for them after having decided on leaving.
Brexit is a regrettable display of democracy, and it's true an election like that could go on in Taiwan.
That said, the Taiwan independence issue has been notable since at least 1945. If it takes not only a vote, but then a second vote to reverse it a few years down the line, we're still looking at very short years and an avoidance of both war and totalitarian regimes deciding for the people altogether.
The US is playing along with a delusion, first to peel China away from the USSR and now to avoid sparking a war. The CCP has never had any power nor legitimate claim over Taiwan. For Taiwan's part, its government lost the civil war that split Taiwan from China a long time ago. It has successfully used its economic and military weight to get other countries and institutions to keep entertaining that delusion, but that doesn't make it accurate.
I think that the only delusion here is on the part of the US. US spent untold billions influencing politics and public opinion on Taiwan because US sees Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier. Imagine for a second how US would react if China started funding separatists in Texas, Chinese officials would fly over to meet with them, and China toyed with recognizing Texas as an independent state. Of course, we don't have to imagine that because we know what happened when USSR put nuclear missiles in Cuba, an independent state that's never been part of the US. No major power will tolerate another major power setting up shop on their border, that's the reality of geopolitics. If US continues to push on Taiwan, then we'll see a much bigger crisis than Ukraine. The west is currently losing an economic war to Russia, what do you think would happen if there was an economic war with both Russia and China?
This is just an inadequate comparison. Texas voluntarily joined the US in 1845. With the brief exception of the American Civil War, it's been part of the US ever since then. Taiwan has, again, never been under the control of the CCP and doesn't want to be. It's only really in the CCP's mind that Taiwan is rightfully theirs.
I'm unable to read that article, but Taiwan is a poor unsinkable aircraft carrier. The US has mostly stayed away from establishing any presence on the island to avoid an acceleration towards war.
The US is flying in politicians. China is flying in warplanes. I'll leave it to the audience to decide who is pushing this one.
Yes, it would be horrible. Taiwan is also very well equipped, so I suspect we would see a lot of dead people on both sides. Then there are the vital chip foundries, which I suspect would be sabotaged if China was ever nearing victory. I hope China ends its march towards war and leaves the Taiwanese people to live in peace and independence.
If Chinese government started pouring billions of dollars into fomenting separatism in Texas, then the number of people who do not want to be under the control of US government would quickly become the majority. I don't see what difference the history makes here.
The fact that US has avoided provoking a war up to now, does not change the fact that US sees Taiwan as a strategic foothold against China.
China is flying warplanes in its own territory. US is flying politicians half way across the world to create tensions with a nuclear power. US has also been arming and training the army in Taiwan. China has been accepting incredible levels of interference up to this point. And if anybody did this kind of interference in US there would be a world war right now. It's pretty clear who's pushing what here.
The chip foundries are far more vital to the west than they are to China given that SMIC can already produce 7nm chips on the mainland. Whatever you may personally think about the situation, the fact is that Taiwan is a red line for China. If US continues to push this then there will be a war, the same way a war broke out in Ukraine under very similar circumstances. Unlike the war in Ukraine, the war in Taiwan is very likely to turn into a direct confrontation between US and China. This could literally end our civilization.
Okay, but Taiwan has never been under the control of the CCP. Texas, on the other hand, became part of the US willingly. The separatist movements have always just been that, separatist movements. Taiwan is not a separatist movement, it is its own sizeable country with a fully functional government. The only thing that keeps it from being its own country is its bully to the west.
China has been deliberately provoking Taiwan. Xi has in the past explicitly included armed conquest of Taiwan as a possibility. China has also been building up its armed forces in a way that suggests they are preparing to invade. If that's not China on a march to war, I don't know what is.
Even if there is a red line, China has chosen to make it that way. Taiwan has been separate from China in all but name since 1949, over 70 years ago. Any invasion by China will be an act of choice, just like with Russia and Ukraine. The propaganda will certainly say that they had no other choice, but that will be utterly false. China always has the choice to let the Taiwanese people have self-determination without menacing them or shutting them out of international institutions.
Yes, which is why China should back off and not wage war on a people that for the most part no longer identify as Chinese.
I don't see why that's relevant one way or the other. My point is that you can manipulate public opinion one way or the other, and then use that to drive your geopolitical goals. This is what's happening in Taiwan. People get their opinions from the media they consume and their education system. When there is a strong bias in these sectors that shapes the opinion of the people.
Again, pretty much no country, including US, recognizes Taiwan as being independent from China. So, talking about an invasion does not make sense here. It would be like US threatening to invade Texas or Canada threatening to invade Quebec.
Sure, China cares about it's territorial integrity as much as any country. The talk of self determination is fundamentally based on a false premise. This notion assumes that China is the only entity influencing the opinion in Taiwan. However, the reality is that US has a long history of manipulating the opinion in Taiwan going back to 1949.
Alternatively, US should back off from trying to manipulate politics half way across the globe from it, and stop trying to start WW3 with China. The reality of the situation is that China's position is clear whether you agree with it or not. This position will not change. The only question is whether US wants to end the world to keep Taiwan in its sphere of influence.
There has been a vigorous debate for a while over what to do. Also, maybe give the people a little agency. These are the same people who threw off the yolk of the KMT, who had ruled under martial law for decades. They have brains, they can think for themselves.
And again, this has absolutely nothing to do with the reality on the ground. It's all to do with China threatening to either start a war or withdraw support depending on what country or institution we're talking about. China is large enough to have essentially blackmailed the world into playing along with its fantasy.
If China can convince the people of Taiwan to completely voluntarily rejoin without invading, fine. But right now China's offer is not looking enticing. Their current offer is "one country two systems", and given how flagrantly China's ignored the agreement in Hong Kong there's no reason Taiwan should trust China to not just rip up any agreements.
These people have very little agency. Can you at least acknowledge the massive interference US is doing in Taiwan the likes of which US has never tolerated anywhere close to its own border. This isn't a unique scenario either, there's a long pattern of US destabilizing countries this way.
Why exactly is US spending all this money on influencing politics in Taiwan. Surely you don't seriously believe it's because US cares about wellbeing of Taiwanese people. US doesn't even care about wellbeing of the people living in US.
Can you explain to me on what basis you think US has a right to interfere in the region, or why you think US should have any say over what happens in Taiwan?
Furthermore, if US wasn't interfering in Taiwan then there wouldn't be a problem in the first place. We would live in a much better world if US stopped trying to play world police and focused on solving mounting domestic problems.
Are you seriously suggesting that what happened to people of Ukraine is the more enticing alternative?
Please do elaborate on what you mean by that exactly.