this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2024
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LOL what? There is barely any polling out on Harris v. Trump, and the one's that have circulated are a dead heat at +/-2 in either direction. I'm personally waiting on Nate Silver's first real forecast tomorrow.
His odds are about the same as Polymarket's.
(Sorry Nate, I know this is paywalled but winning an argument is more important than your livelihood.)
Hey fair enough. That's pretty shocking. Looks like I'm throwing some money down on this one. I think these odds are insane, and I'll gladly take them.
Edit: So far that money is looking well spent. As expected, the odds have completely flipped.
Ok, then who do you propose is better at predicting election results?
Nobody is good at it. They shouldnt be used to predict who will win.
How's that looking now?
I think the original predictions were accurate given the information available at the time, but Harris has been unexpectedly successful. I am pleasant surprised.