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True, well, I mean, take the effects I described and apply them to the respective agricultural sectors. We will very likely see price increases in fresh produce and some price decrease in corn, soy, wheat, dairy, etc. (I say "some" because the actual global demand for food hasn't decreased, rather, the purchasing power has been decreased because some subsidization has been lost due to USAID absence).
So, thing is USDA guarantees a minimum price for stuff like corn and dairy, paying the difference between the actual market price and the minimum price to farmers. So the market price for them will drop but production won’t, and chances are, most of the stuff will end up getting thrown out or used in utterly absurd way. Closing USAID just removes a potential useful outlet for the surplus. Rather than corn getting used for subsidizing food costs in other countries, it’ll be up getting used to make potting soil, gasoline and dry wall. Not because it makes economic sense to do so, but because the government will pay the economic losses that are inherent in such wasteful use cases.
Right, so up until the point the USDA PLC programs get exhausted (afaict ~$25B/yr), they compensate for the difference between the price floor (not sure if we're above or below that now) and market price. But that's a subsidy to the farmers, not an effect on the market price - the expense comes to taxpayers. And sometimes, they scoop up surplus through CCC, then remarket it elsewhere, an indirect/artificial market mechanism, which can include exports.