this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2025
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"Whether or not they ever be put into place, the damage is done," said Greig Mordue, a former auto industry executive and associate professor at the W. Booth School of Engineering Practice and Technology at McMaster University.

He says Trump's threats have already changed the landscape. Whether he goes ahead with the tariffs or not, or whether he carves out specific exemptions, the threat alone will drive investment out of Canada and into the U.S.

"For at least the next four years, there will be no serious investment in the Canadian automotive industry," said Mordue.

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[–] ragepaw 4 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (9 children)

I keep seeing this talking point. Is it true?

Consider that Australia has a similar population, similar geographic issues and they have domestic auto production.

South Korea is only slightly larger than us in terms of population and has 3 domestic companies building cars. We could certainly do like Korea and export vehicles.

The only thing stopping us from having a Canadian domestic auto industry is the pervasive and false belief that we can't because we need to sell to the US.

We don't. We can sell to anyone willing to buy.

Edit: To add. My first new car was built by an independent plant that manufactured for multiple car companies.

[–] GrindingGears 1 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (8 children)

Australia had automotive production. They don't anymore, because it wasn't viable.

South Korea is definitely an exporter of automobiles. Thing is it took them about ~40 years to get to the point where they caught traction with it. The early Korean exports were pretty low quality and sort of unreliable (different people had different experiences). It took time for their R&D to work it out, and for economies of scale to develop.

It's not the belief that we need to sell to the United States that would be stopping us here. It's that they are right next door + 100 years ahead of us on R&D and progress, not to mention having long established integrated facilities and economies of scale. You'd have to enter the global marketplace with a car company built from scratch, that would need billions if not even maybe hundreds of billions dumped into R&D, design & development, which takes time. You would need manufacturing facilities that would be huge, that would also probably cost tens if not hundreds of billions to develop. Where is your steel going to come from? How are you going to stamp it? Where's all the parts coming from if you don't want to work with the US, and then how are you going to get them on a timely basis if they are coming by ship? Not to mention the zillion other questions one would need to figure out. It would take ~a decade to get this all sorted out. And godless sums of money. All to then compete in a global marketplace with international companies that have centuries of experience.

Magna would be the only developed enough option where this could even be feasible, but even they've sort of poked around looking at developing a product in the past, and the absence of said product in the marketplace kind of tells you everything you need to know about the viability of it.

[–] lobut 2 points 1 week ago (4 children)

I know you were using hyperbole with 100 years of R&D and progress so for fun I wanted to know how old the modern car is and wikipedia said: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile#%3A%7E%3Atext=Benz+was+granted+a+patent%2Cwas+capable+of+extended+travel. 1886.

So like, 139 years of automotive history and being 100 years behind would really suck lol.

In all seriousness, you raise very real points and links to globalisation and Pierre Trudeau's analogy of sleeping with an elephant has never been more real. I'm not gonna lie, I'm worried.

[–] GrindingGears 2 points 1 week ago

I'm worried too. I was born and raised in SW Ontario, so most of my family and friends work in some sort of auto manufacturing or automotive-related industry. It's already been pretty bad the past decade or so, this will likely be the death knell if it grows legs.

Fun fact, did you know that there was actually even electric cars made in the late 1800s? Some even in Canada. Car companies in this era all eventually failed though, or merged into other companies. There wasn't ever really any production volumes in auto until Oldsmobile and Ford came onto the scene, especially with the latter who established the golden standard of auto production lines.

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