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Trump might claim China tariff victory – but this is Capitulation Day (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

36 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Donald Trump will inevitably claim Monday’s temporary truce in the US-China trade war as a victory, but financial markets seem to have read it for what it is – a capitulation.

Stocks were up and bond yields were higher after the US treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s early morning press conference in Geneva, where he has been holding talks with China.
As with the UK “trade deal” last week, the US is not reverting to the status quo before Trump arrived in the White House.

Instead, tariffs on Chinese goods will be cut from 145% to 30% – initially for a 90-day period. In return, China has cut its own tariffs on US imports to 10%, from the 125% it had imposed in retaliation against the White House.

That still marks a big shift in the terms of trade between the two countries since before Trump came to power, but falls far short of what was in effect a trade embargo.

Instead, the statement hailed “the importance of a sustainable, long-term and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship”. The language was rather different to Trump’s Liberation Day speech, about the US being “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far”.

In other words, the president has caved. He may have been swayed by market wobbles but it seems more plausible that dire warnings from retailers about empty shelves – backed up by data showing shipments into US ports collapsing – may have strengthened the hands of trade moderates in the administration.

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[–] [email protected] 30 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Still, the shelves will be empty during the summer and who knows also prior to the holidays.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

So I saw the empty ports, but what makes you so sure we'll have empty shelves sometime this season?

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 weeks ago

It takes at least a month to ship things from China to the US. I've got a post in my history going over the math.

If the ports are empty now, that means ships stopped sailing a month ago. If they sail today, they'll be here mid to late June. If none have sailed in-between, it's going to be a while before any do. And I'm not sure any ships will be sailing soon because no deals have been reached.

Lots of companies bought extra supply in the months leading up to Lie-beration Day, so they can hold for a bit. The only question is how long will they, compared to how long Chinese shipping will resume?