Not only no, but you better get a burial plot while you can afford it.
this post was submitted on 21 Aug 2023
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No I don't think there will be a crash. I think we might see legislation meant to help affordability become a topic in the 2028 presidential race, when Trump and Biden are definitely out of it so there's a cluster of low-education populist voters in swing states who become swing voters, and the replacement options are decades younger and they will want fresh ideas to be at The forefront of their campaigns.
Yes. And I think soon. Student loan repayments will force people to make tough choices. I think people got into very large mortgages because they could afford it without the student loans, and likely expected rates to drop before the loans restarted.
Those people will probably have to move, possibly short selling the home (where the bank takes your home and sells it for what it can get, clearing your debt in the process even if it's less than your mortgage).
This kind of stuff happened in 2008, and I just saw a graph showing housing slightly less affordable now than then.
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No.
Eventually we are going to realize that not everyone is going to be able to have a big yard and a big house with 3 cars each. Something has to give and I think it is going to be zoning laws. So while people might be able to afford "housing" again at some point in the next 50 years it is going to be more like a shack than a house.
Not unless we reduce the amount of red tape necessary for new construction. A market with super high housing prices should naturally correct itself as those profit margins attract new investment, but we clamp down really hard on new construction via nimbyism and over precise zoning laws.
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I’m hopeful
In a democracy, it usually requires a majority of people to feel the same. Right now, in almost every Western country, most people live in owner-occupied housing. Most people are perfectly happy for prices to keep going up. So they’re fine with high migration and slow building. Slowly, the number of owner-occupied homes is decreasing, but we are decades away from the flip. When it happens, it’s going to be extremely destructive. Generations have and will have been locked out of home ownership. There will be all kinds of punitive taxes on property.
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Narp.
Not in time for people looking to buy soon. I think eventually it may happen but it might take decades.
Either the housing market will crash after some new laws are applied that specifically target landlords.
Or the price of buying houses will catch up with the cost of building them.
When either of those will happen, I do not know.