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In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death9 to the 37โ€‰396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186โ€‰000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza.

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This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/aboringdystopia by /u/the_art_of_the_taco on 2024-07-08 00:34:29+00:00.

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In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37,396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2,375,259, this would translate to 7ยท9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28โ€‰000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58,260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85,750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.

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Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population's inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.^8^

In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death^9^ to the 37โ€‰396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186โ€‰000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2โ€‰375โ€‰259, this would translate to 7ยท9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip.

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