I get that this is the collapse community, so the article is appropriate here, but there are so many fallacies and half baked conclusions here that it's just silly.
While I counted at least 5 logical fallacies, I'm instead addressing a single point:
Surges in societal complexity (the number of non-productive roles and people employed outside the production of food and other necessities), however, is the ultimate sign of a society in absolute overshoot.
Society is made up of individuals who have roles that don't make things, that's okay. People govern, people perform services, people help other's mental health, people make art, life is about more than making food and dying.
This kind of rhetoric is actually somewhat damaging, consider people with disabilities. Our anger and energy need to be directed appropriately.
There are some valid points here, but they are mixed in with pseudoscience and illogical conclusions, we have plenty of actual science showing avenues of societal collapse with actual numbers we don't need to make stuff up.
- The Limits to Growth (1972, updated) – MIT / Club of Rome
- The MEDEAS and GEM-E3 Models (EU-funded)
- Tainter’s Theory of Diminishing Returns on Complexity
Tool use/mcp can do an awful lot already, not everything but it’s hard to come up with stuff it just plain can't do.
Agi is poorly defined, without a clear definition of exactly what it is there will never be a time we actually achieve it because the goalposts will move.
We all probably remember the time that the turing test was the ultimate test of an ai, but that's pretty well cooked and it no longer matters at all.