Canada

Cards on the table: I am admittedly, from BC and while I basically like our NDP government, I am also unable to forget the fast ferries debacle that cost us almost half a billion in 90s dollars. That being said, pre-trump, I was still hoping for the Liberals to lose hard enough that the NDP won, maybe a minority with the Liberals as a bit of a sanity check.

Okay, with that being said, my concerns are basically a trade war is goddamn expensive and going to hurt. We're going to want to support a bunch of people and businesses while working internationally with similarly affected nations. That seems exactly like Carney's wheelhouse. The NDP on the other hand, never met a union they didn't love. Last election they wanted to expand Canada Post to unnecessary services in part to help out the union. I'd be worried they'd try to hold or worse, create zombie jobs that are expensive and inefficient (eg fighting mechanization of ports.) I also wouldn't trust them to have the fiscal probity to discern which of their ideas are both morally good and economically good (like say $10 a day daycare which is almost certainly a net benefit to the economy vs a wishlist of "everything should be good!") It's hard to guess what exactly they'd do; their 2022 election campaign ran like a giant wishlist so you have to read tea leaves to guess what they'd have actually done.

At a time when Canadian businesses are going to have to make very difficult decisions to try and survive, I just don't trust the NDP to act in a way that protects them and thus protects us.

But the bigger concern is like I said at the very beginning of my previous post, I don't think they can win and I think Carney can and short term, I think Carney better at defending Canada than Polievre, and long term I think Carney a better bet to protect our climate change strategies, like the carbon tax.